SF Fed working paper: "Higher tariffs trigger an expansion in U.S. manufacturing employment, but this comes at the expense of declines in service and agricultural employment, with overall employment declining as lower real wages reduce labor-force participation. For the United States as a whole, real income falls around 1% by 2028." https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/working-papers/2025/05/the-2025-trade-war-dynamic-impacts-across-u-s-states-and-the-global-economy/?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=working-papers