The CPI data will be released tonight, and we will continue with the two major logical principles mentioned in the citation yesterday for further development. After discussing the tariff war, we can return to the usual main topic. The resolution of the tariff war has temporarily eased the three major topics of interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, and US debt. The thunderstorms of recession and stagflation have been delayed, which means that the ticking time bomb that was supposed to explode in 30 minutes has been extended by another 30 minutes. If high blood pressure and low blood sugar are relieved due to the ceasefire, the downward trend in inflation provides the Federal Reserve with the best opportunity to cut interest rates. Moreover, judging from Kawako's speed of changing face and kneeling at lightning speed, it is not difficult for him to ask Powell, after all, a man can bend and stretch. ” Based on the above two plans, tonight's CPI data is actually a specific feedback on inflation and a reference data point for interest rate cuts and recessions. The theme for the entire month of April is actually the tariff war. Although the tariff war came to a temporary end yesterday, and even if it does not end, it will take some time (2-3 months) to transmit to the real world. According to the timeline of the parallel universe that has not ended, the earliest feedback to the data side will not be until June, so the overall data will be relatively stable this time. But it's not that the tariff war won't have an impact, after all, April was the main focus of the 40 day tariff war, and we still need to take it into consideration. At the same time, the overall downward trend of oil prices in April played a significant role in lowering CPI. Specifically for this data, the expected annual rate of CPI is 2.4%, the expected monthly rate is -0.1%, and the expected value is 0.3%. The expected pre annual value of the core CPI is 2.8%, and the pre monthly value of the core CPI is 0.1%, with an expected value of 0.3% Recently, the absurdly accurate Federal Reserve spokesperson Nick stated that the monthly rate of core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy costs) has risen by 0.26% (rounded to the nearest 0.3%), and the core annual rate of 2.8% is in line with market expectations. The quarterly adjusted monthly rate is 0.25% rounded to 0.3%, and the quarterly adjusted annual rate is slightly lower than expected at 2.3%. In this way, the overall presentation of the four data points is in line with expectations and moderate inflation, which not only avoids the possibility of being labeled as a recession, but also blocks the opportunity for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns. If the data is released according to this expected version, the expectation of the first decline, which was delayed until December, may be alleviated. Moreover, since even the seemingly complex and difficult problem of the tariff war has been temporarily alleviated. Trump might as well try his best to win the favor of Master Bao and reduce interest rates in June to ease the pressure of high interest replacement of treasury bond. If Master Bao doesn't want to lose face, it's better to be more appeasement and directly open the country to people for dumping, ensuring that inflation instantly returns to zero or even deflation (manual dog head) 🐶 After all, the Hundred Days' Reform has also failed. Collaborating with the pro establishment, Democratic, and international factions to make money and ensure family wealth is also a good strategy.