Phyrex
Phyrex|May 13, 2025 08:51
I am also about to talk about the CPI data. Currently, the market estimates that the annual rate of CPI is the same as last month, both at 2.4%. The data provided by the Cleveland Fed is also similar, so the broad CPI is likely to be within this range. However, it should be noted that the inflation data for April only includes a small amount of new tariff data. If the CPI data is low, it will not trigger any reaction from the Federal Reserve, as the formal tariff details have not yet been implemented. If there is a significant increase in CPI data, it may also be interpreted as caused by "tariff grabbing", such as the monthly rate of CPI rising significantly, especially from deflation to inflation. The main reason is that concerns about tariffs have led many consumers to buy in advance, and the core annual and monthly rates are also the same reason. So my personal opinion is that if the data is lower than expected, it may be a small positive and may not last long, while if it exceeds expectations, it may be a small negative and may not have a significant impact. So yesterday, the US stock market maintained an upward trend without any intention of hedging. Today's morning stock index futures only saw a very small correction, which should not be considered hedging. The main reason is that people are not too concerned about the current inflation, and they know that the data that the Federal Reserve is looking at is actually inflation after tariffs, not inflation before tariffs.
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