qinbafrank
qinbafrank|May 12, 2025 23:29
The macro also needs to be narrated. For example, since mid April, the macro narrative has focused on four aspects: 1) Trump's turn (to identify and promote trade negotiations), 2) recession expectations, 3) re inflation concerns, and 4) Fed policy. In the personal framework, Trump turned to the main contradiction with the largest weight, and the last three are secondary contradictions. Previously on https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/1920992310780981284? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has been discussed here, and it is necessary to firmly grasp the main contradiction and pay attention to the changes in secondary contradictions. Since mid April, the most important narrative is Trump's turn to recognition: the first suspension of tariff parity on April 4.9, the second denial of the dismissal of Powell on April 22, and the third denial of 28 year re-election at the end of April (this time, people don't pay much attention to it, but it is important that they don't try to attack the core of the U.S. constitutional government). I talked about that as long as Trump turns to actively promote negotiations, the market will get older and better. We must pull the market back or the initial turn will be meaningless. The so-called "more futile, more correct". So the recent market situation is quite the main driving force for Trump to turn to promote negotiations: the first small climax of the US UK agreement to the first big climax of the Sino US joint statement. During this period, the economic data for April and the company performance during the earnings season dispelled recession expectations. Powell's neutral speech at last week's interest rate meeting also temporarily desensitized the market to the Federal Reserve. One main contradiction continued to progress, and two secondary contradictions (recession expectations and Federal Reserve policies) were temporarily dispelled, jointly driving the recent surge. Where is the macro narrative going next? Where does the market get its momentum from? It's quite obvious: 1) Another secondary contradiction (re inflation concerns) needs to be dispelled as well; 2) Then the main contradiction continued to make new progress, that is, to reach an agreement with several major countries to let Trump move from "winning hemp" to a new "winning hemp", Only in this way can the current market, which is expected to rush ahead, continue to gain momentum.
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