Phyrex
Phyrex|May 12, 2025 11:49
The problem of tariffs has been a bit apparent since the Federal Reserve's interest meeting in May. Although it seems that tariffs are making good progress, the United States has not released a complete tariff strategy. From Powell's speech, there is no complete expectation of tariffs, which may be directly related to Trump's failure to communicate with the Federal Reserve. I personally think that before the tariffs are fully implemented, because they are currently in a suspended state, the actual result may not be favorable. That is to say, the tariffs are only a part of the basic tariff of 10%, without any equivalent tariffs. Therefore, it is unknown whether the equivalent tariffs will continue to be collected and how much they will be collected. So the average equivalent tariff is 5%, and the overall tariff of the United States is also 15%, which is three times higher than the average tariff of the United States in 2024. Therefore, the impact caused by this will definitely depend on data before the Federal Reserve can decide. Therefore, the current attitude of the Federal Reserve towards tariffs is to wait for data and not make any expectations. This also leads to economic indicators being the data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, because the impact of tariffs can be judged through the economy. For example, the GDP in the first quarter was originally negative, and then the analysis pointed out that the strong domestic consumption power in the United States was due to "tariff grabbing". So personally, I think the Federal Reserve will not easily adjust interest rates. If they do, especially in the absence of clear tariffs, it is likely because the economic trend is no longer good enough. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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