
雷神Value|May 12, 2025 09:44
The fundamental reversal has arrived, and the opportunity to the right of the fundamental has arrived.
The unresolved issues that we had been worried about before can be said to have been resolved for the vast majority today. I thought there wouldn't be any substantial progress in the US China tariff negotiations in Switzerland, it was just the beginning of the negotiations between the two sides. I never expected that after two days of talks, such an important agreement would be formed, and tariffs would decrease so much. The tariff adjustment between China and the United States this time has reduced the 145% tariff imposed by both sides to 30%, while China's tariff on the United States is only retained at 10%. Although this agreement has a 90 day suspension period like a limited time discount in a supermarket, it may return to its original price after expiration. However, the market has expressed short-term optimism with the surge in US stock futures, the strength of the renminbi exchange rate, and the decline in gold. If China and the United States agree that the tariffs of other countries should not be too high, if Chuanzi gives them a high price, it will undoubtedly make China take advantage of global trade, which means that the United States has helped China's economy, and Chuanpu has become a nation. Therefore, the achievement of such a result between China and the United States basically declares the end of the tariff war. As for Trump's unreliable characteristics, let's talk about it when he turns his face again. It's estimated that he won't do it in the short term. Launching another tariff war may also have to wait until the United States gradually resolves the issues in the trade chain, as this tariff war was clearly launched unprepared.
As for the cryptocurrency market, the time it takes to rebuild the trade chain is already long enough for us. In one or two years, even a small bull or bear may have passed. We don't want it to be so long-term. From a fundamental perspective, the most painful period of the four months since January this year, when expectations of tariffs and interest rate cuts changed and led to a fundamental downturn, should have passed. Funds may shift from safe haven assets to risky assets in the future. Although Bitcoin, as a digital gold, also has the attribute of a safe haven asset, it is still more of a risky asset. The suspension of the tariff war is still more beneficial for the market. The suspension of the tariff war will temporarily eliminate the sharp decline in the US stock market, the US debt crisis, the inflation crisis, and the recession crisis. Relieving inflationary pressures and theoretically providing more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are all long-term benefits for Bitcoin. This is even more favorable for risky assets such as Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. I now suspect that someone may have been aware of the benefits of tariffs in advance, or perhaps someone may have been aware of the benefits of Ethereum spot ETF staking in advance, which led to Ethereum's recent rise.
Without the influence of the tariff war, the encryption market can continue the expectation of Trump for the bull market of the encryption market before he took office last year. The outbreak of regulatory dividends, ETF dividends, stable currencies, and possibly AI agents will give the encryption market medium and long-term development impetus. The coming and going of the tariff war has caused a deep correction in the market, washed away a large number of chips, and led to a profound adjustment in the market chip structure. The collective valuation of cryptocurrency market tokens has dropped significantly, and we are starting anew.
There is no need to be too optimistic in the short term, and a significant improvement in fundamentals does not mean that buying now immediately leads to a continuous rise. The recent cryptocurrency market itself has experienced a major rebound without any obvious favorable conditions and has already gone through a general rise. Perhaps the market has already overdrawn too many optimistic expectations in advance, and if there is a short-term decline, it is a trick of "buying expectations and selling facts". When positive news hits the ground, we should be wary of the risk of a pullback.
Be mentally prepared, even if there is a pullback, it will not change the expectations of the bull market. The fundamentals of cryptocurrency have truly improved, and the market has ushered in long-term development expectations. After eliminating risks, market sentiment gradually turns optimistic, and many of the previous good news will be realized one by one. A short-term pullback would be a better opportunity to build a position. If there are no bullets left, just hold onto them. But we need to consider the future market trends, whether our currency can achieve good development and attention in the future market, and whether it will win the favor of funds. The next few years will be a process for encryption to further mature into a market, and many projects that were previously spammed will inevitably be eliminated by the market. They will not be the future of encryption. In the past, they were tools for deceiving investors' liquidity, and in the future, they will be. Don't be deceived by these projects anymore. The PENDLE mentioned earlier is still very stable and has recently increased. When I recommended it, it was a little over 3U, but now it's 4U. It has increased a bit, but it's not too crazy. You can still consider building a warehouse. It's a really innovative and empowering project. https://app. (degate.com)/en/trade/USDC/0x808507121b80c02388fad14726482e061b8da827? Leishen is making grids on DeGate, and the profits are still considerable without any transaction fees.
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