
Phyrex|May 08, 2025 16:47
Let me answer your question about skipping class, but what I thought earlier may not be correct. My point of view is that on the one hand, there is no systemic risk in the United States, and on the other hand, there is a real shift towards monetary easing. I agree with what you said. From the current perspective, balance sheet tightening is slowing down, and the margin is correspondingly shifting towards easing, which I strongly agree with.
But after all, we haven't really stopped shrinking our balance sheet yet, nor have we started the continuous interest rate cuts of the Federal Reserve. There's even no clear answer to whether the US economy is declining or continuing to rise. In this situation, my own judgment is that we haven't entered a reversal yet.
I have three basic definitions of inversion:
1. Stop QT
2. Stop SLR
3A, It's not because of the economic recession that we entered into a continuous interest rate cut
3B, If the interest rate cut is due to an economic recession, will the economy begin to stabilize
Above, my viewpoint may not be correct, I must admit it, but it is indeed my true thoughts.
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