The common problem for novice traders to analyze the market is to need, need, need, and preferably You said, 'Many people short, so they pull it up and go short' - this is analyst thinking. It's not about judging odds, it's not about managing risks, but about constructing an explanation that sounds reasonable, so that you can carry the order with peace of mind. You said, 'BTC has reached 100000 and feels like it's going to rebound,' but 'I'm afraid it will continue to rise after the rebound.'.