Summary of Powell's speech and Federal Reserve FOMC statement (with full text attached) Interpretation of Teacher Bao's Speech The main cause of inflation is not the labor market, but rather tariffs. But I don't care what decision Jinmao makes, I only judge whether to lower interest rates based on Jinmao's decision. The debt cannot be sustained, and it's not my business. I can't control it. 2. Inflation remains good, employment is close to its maximum level, the economy is stable, very good, good boy； 3. The tax rate is still higher than expected, which may lead to significant long-term inflation; How low is the employment rate that will lead to a rate cut? I don't know, I need to consider the actual situation in the future and measure the two goals of inflation and employment. Which one is farther away to make a decision, and how long it will take for them to achieve their goals I have the capital to wait, employment is stable, and the economy has not declined. The GDP-0.3% in the first quarter is due to import distortion, let's not worry about it. I sit and watch how Jin Mao performs; It's difficult for me to make a decision before the negotiations come to an end. You haven't reached a conclusion yet, so I can't measure the actual impact on inflation, so I don't know. 7. What do you think about the significant decrease in shipments from CN port and the potential impact of shortages on US? What do you think of the negotiations that are deadlocked between the two sides? Lao Bao: I don't know, it's not my responsibility. I can only affect residents' demand and supply chain issues through interest rate hikes and cuts. I have no control over how we talk about it, it's a matter of gold and silver, and it has nothing to do with me. ------ FOMC statement: 1. Interest rate determination: By a vote of 12-0, the benchmark interest rate was kept unchanged at 4.25% -4.50% for the third consecutive time. 2. Employment prospects: The unemployment rate has stabilized and the labor market is resilient. 3. Shrinking of the balance sheet: we will continue to reduce the holdings of treasury bond and MBS at the current rate. 4. Inflation outlook: The inflation rate is still slightly high; The risks of high unemployment and high inflation have increased. 5. Economic outlook: The uncertainty of the outlook is further increasing. Despite fluctuations in net exports affecting the data, economic activity continues to expand at a 'steady pace'. Full text of interest rate resolution Although fluctuations in net exports have had an impact on the data, recent indicators indicate that economic activity is still steadily expanding. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and the labor market situation remains stable. The inflation level is still slightly higher. The committee's goal is to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation in the long term. The uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased. The committee is concerned about the bidirectional risks faced by its dual mission of employment and price stability, and believes that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation levels have increased. In order to support its goals, the committee has decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. When considering whether to further adjust the magnitude and timing of the target range, the committee will carefully evaluate the latest data, changes in the economic outlook, and risk balance. The Committee will continue to reduce its holdings of treasury bond, institutional debt and institutional mortgage-backed securities. The committee is firmly committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring the inflation rate to the target level of 2%. When evaluating appropriate monetary policy positions, the committee will continue to monitor the impact of the latest information on the economic outlook. If there are risks that may hinder the achievement of the committee's goals, the committee will be prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance in a timely manner. The committee's evaluation will comprehensively consider various information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and expectations, financial and international situations, etc. The supporters of this monetary policy action include Chairman Jerome H. Powell, Vice Chairman John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Susan M. Collins, Lisa D. Cook, Austan D. Goolsbee, Philip N. Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, Adriana D. Kugler, Alberto G. Musalem, and Christopher J. Waller. Neel Kashkari participated in the voting as an alternate member at this meeting.