The correlation between the recent decline in US stocks and BTC in the past two days The US stock market has been declining for two consecutive days this week, with each day around 1%. However, there is no clear bearish information in the market, and the debate is more focused on tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts. Especially today, it was announced that the US trade deficit for March was $140.5 billion, which is higher than the estimated $137.2 billion. This data is like GDP. On the surface, it means that the domestic demand in the US is very strong, but in reality, it is very likely that the effect of tariffs led to people rushing to buy before the tariffs were implemented. From the perspective of God, we know that tariffs on countries other than China will be suspended for 90 days on the evening of April 9th. However, in March, which happens to be the time when the demand for tariffs is strongest, it is difficult to avoid buying up in the face of possible high tariffs, which has also increased "domestic demand". From the data, it can be seen that the import of pharmaceuticals has significantly increased. Moreover, this trade deficit has been the largest in the history of the United States, up to 14%. Trump once again created a "No. 1 in the United States" during his tenure. The issue of tariffs not only led to a decline in GDP data, but also forced the public to increase consumption. But I don't think this is a big negative. Even this negative may be gradually diluted over time. Although the negotiation with China and Europe is not good, the market seems not worried. The market realizes that Trump may not have many cards, and it may be the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the early hours of Thursday that makes the market more sad. The expectation of not cutting interest rates in June continues to rise, and it is very likely to reach 70% before the interest rate meeting. As mentioned before, if there is no economic recession, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to choose to cut interest rates in June. Therefore, the focus of the market is on Powell's talk about the economy and inflation, trying to hear whether the Federal Reserve will choose to cut interest rates in July. In fact, I think Powell will still follow the same old pattern in the May interest rate meeting, looking at the data, inflation will remain at 2% and remain unchanged. The slightly more interesting one should be the interest rate meeting in June. Although it is not playing with the issue of interest rate cuts in June, the two or three grid plots in June are quite important. So in my personal opinion, before the interest rate meeting on Thursday morning, the market is more likely to remain volatile, waiting to see what Powell says and whether he shows a dovish or hawkish side. Compared to the increase in volatility of the US stock market, the fluctuation of Bitcoin prices is still relatively small. According to data provided by CME, the trading volume/open interest contracts of BTC futures have reached their lowest point since the end of March. This also proves that after FOMO sentiment, investors have gradually calmed down, not only in spot trading, but also in contracts waiting for direction. After all, there is currently no clear positive or negative news, and the game of long and short emotions is not intense. Moreover, the trading volume of Bitcoin is also a mess, which may not be caused by negative factors. It is very likely that bond auctions have led to the extraction of liquidity from the market. Therefore, compared to the more liquid US stocks, BTC has been less affected, and only by extracting liquidity from BTC can we extract as much. But we have also had clear information that although BTC may have an independent market opposite to the United States at a small level, in the overall trend, BTC still highly overlaps with the S&P 500. This also represents that even now BTC has not fallen along, because there is no systematic bearish trend in the US stock market. If there is a systemic risk in the interest rate meeting, BTC will also be difficult to be alone. So personally, I think BTC is still fluctuating narrowly in the absence of obvious positive or negative factors, especially with less impact from US bond auctions. The volatility may be lower than that of US stocks, but if there are systematic positive and negative factors at the interest rate meeting, we can better make judgments on the short-term direction. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex