
Rocky|May 06, 2025 07:38
In fact, many people may not have enough information and deep thinking about Buffett's last speech. Although the words are easy to understand, considering his investment operations and behaviors in the past 3-5 years actually has a huge amount of information.
At the shareholders' meeting, Buffett was very optimistic about the United States, but he cleared most of his positions early and increased his holdings in Japan, making long-term investments in Japan. This is an effective hedging strategy. Currently, the two most competitive places in the world are the United States and the Asia Pacific region (China, Japan), with the top three economies. This represents two types of corporate nature and investment thinking.
In terms of corporate governance model:
The American model emphasizes shareholder primacy, efficiency first, and rapid change, making it suitable for a highly competitive and volatile market environment (peaceful times with ample liquidity).
The Japanese model emphasizes stability, internal solidarity, and long termism, and is more adaptable to a slowly evolving, low-risk industrial environment (turbulent times, liquidity tightening).
In terms of differences in financial management:
The American model: leans towards equity financing, emphasizes high ROE and return on capital, adopts fair value accounting (GAAP/IFRS), emphasizes transparency and investor orientation.
The Japanese model tends to favor debt financing, maintain low-cost stable funding sources, lean towards historical cost accounting, be conservative and prudent, and focus on long-term asset protection
This is the core of Buffett's investment in Japan. Japan's corporate management model is more in line with the current turbulent global financial environment. Although he personally flew to Japan to negotiate dividends and increased the dividend ratio, overall, it tends towards a stable core.
However, the above incident occurred in August 2020, when he announced through Berkshire Hathaway that he had quietly purchased approximately 5% of each of the following five large Japanese comprehensive trading companies, and later increased his holdings to 7.4% in 2023:
Mitsubishi Corporation
Mitsui&Co
Itochu Corporation
Sumitomo Corporation
Marubeni Corporation
I have to admire the foresight and insight into the global landscape five years ago, and the fact that I bought Japanese stocks with low interest rate Japanese bonds without spending a penny. People who followed me 5 years ago, even if they bought a house in Tokyo, Japan, still made a lot of money.
At this shareholders' meeting, it can be seen from the $10 billion investment statement that Buffett did not make a big move in response to the tariff reduction this time. And Buffett has always been optimistic about Apple, why throw the apple at $250 and not buy it after a drop of 170? Why didn't you buy at the bottom of US stocks during the sharp decline in the trade war while holding $340 billion? Indicating that it is not cost-effective enough.
3. Finally, it is mentioned that Warren Buffett mentioned valuable opportunities in the next five years. To be honest, I was scared by this sentence at the time. This tariff reduction is not a sexy opportunity. So we need to think about how to make longer-term plans for our funds. During our internal meeting today, we were discussing whether to slow down the pace of bottom fishing in the US stock market and cryptocurrency. Increase more gold positions. We have always had regular investments in gold, but our positions are not enough because gold is a good tool for hedging whether it is the US Treasury crisis, the depreciation of the US dollar, the decline of the US stock market, or future interest rate cuts.
If you can think to this level, perhaps there are many investment considerations and companies that are worth screening. And position management will be more rational and comprehensive. 🧐
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