
Satoshi Flipper|May 03, 2025 10:43
Everybody is entitled to their opinion, there's a large crowd of people now that most certainly believes $110k was the bull market top in January and we're formally 4 months into the new bear market cycle. Many such accounts exist, they also firmly insist we're now working our way towards the bear market pico bottom and looking at $40k's imminently for BTC. Motivated by TA and TA alone, these accounts will openly (almost proudly) disregard MACRO events. They just don't matter to them. Only the chart matters as a forecasting tool.
Here's why MACRO events do matter and 3 reasons why we're still in the bull market. Can write-up many reasons but I'll stick to my OBVIOUS 3 points ✍️
💡 FIRST, the bull cycle top isn't in until it's completely obvious and indisputable by all parties, not just the ones that only see it their way. If it's questionable by the majority of the space, then the top isn't in and we're still in the bull market. When it's obvious beyond question to EVERYBODY that the cycle is over, then the top is in and we're in the unwinding process. But that's how it works, it has to be clear without question. This is indisputable.
💡 SECOND, when the bull market top is in, BTC price will dump for 12 months straight because it takes time for smart money/retail to unwind their positions. But BTC isn't "unwinding" since January, it's correcting and consolidating, similar to what we saw with the 9 month bull flag back in 2024. Also, BTC just recovered over $20k, this is not how price action "unwinds," it's simply not bear market price action & behavior. This is indisputable.
💡 THIRD, it's cool to use TA but if that's entirely all you rely on, you can't be taken seriously, sorry. BTC is a risk-on asset and its price is extremely correlated to the increase in the M2 money supply. M2 fuels liquidity in financial markets. When it prints hard, the excess liquidity flows into risk-on assets like BTC, which is also highly in demand during times like this as an inflation hedge & flight to safety. Check the M2 chart to see where BTC goes next. Your chart lines can't help you when M2 says we go up. This is indisputable.
SO complete consensus, unwinding and M2 money supply. FINITO
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