This is actually a paradox With the help of @ Rocky_Bitcoin's article x, I will make an extended discussion. If there are too many people short or long based on a single data, it means that the market may have a "possibility" of the opposite trend. If the direction of the market is judged so simply, then we may not need to pay attention to or analyze more data and logic. The essence of trading analysis emphasizes probability rather than certainty. All other conditions being equal, when the buying volume is greater than the selling volume, the price usually rises/when the selling volume is greater than the buying volume, the price usually falls. However, actual price fluctuations are also influenced by a combination of market depth, order types, external factors, and market liquidity. From a certain perspective, if the absolute long short ratio of the market can be determined, then the estimated trading volume between buying and selling orders can also be determined. It can also determine the future direction of development. However, this assumption is almost impossible in the real market, as the complexity and dynamics of the market far exceed the explanatory power of a single data. The comparison of buying and selling volume may provide us with a partial perspective, but it is only a piece of the market puzzle. The essence of transaction analysis is to acknowledge uncertainty and seek high probability trading opportunities through multidimensional information integration. Why can't the market be defined by a single data? The price fluctuations in the market are the result of a multi-party game, and the trading volume of buying and selling orders is only one of the manifestations. For example, information asymmetry: Some traders may have insider information or faster execution capabilities (such as high-frequency trading algorithms), resulting in trading volume data that cannot fully reflect the true intentions of the market. Psychological game: The emotions of market participants, such as greed and fear, may lead to irrational buying and selling behavior, breaking the simple logic of quantity and price. For example, in panic selling, a surge in selling volume may be accompanied by a rapid decline in price, but this decline may be quickly reversed by bargain hunting funds. External shocks: Macroeconomic data (such as interest rate decisions), geopolitical events, or sudden news may instantly alter the market supply and demand pattern, rendering short-term signals of buying and selling volume ineffective. Therefore, relying solely on the trading volume of buying and selling orders to determine price trends is like trying to infer the overall trend of the ocean by observing the ripples on the water surface. This' single data determinism 'not only ignores the complexity of the market, but may also expose traders to the risk of misjudgment. Probabilistic Thinking: The Core of Transaction Analysis The essence of trading analysis lies in probability, not certainty. No single indicator or data can guarantee 100% prediction accuracy, even for seemingly intuitive comparisons of buying and selling volume. Successful traders are not trying to 'predict' the market, But to increase the winning rate through the following methods: Multi signal verification: Combine the trading volume of buy and sell orders with other indicators (moving average indicators, chart structure, chip distribution) to find the resonance of signals. For example, when the buying volume increases, the chart structure shows an upward trend, and the price breaks through key resistance levels, the probability of an increase significantly increases. Dynamic adjustment: The market environment is constantly changing, and traders need to adjust their judgments based on real-time data. For example, in low liquidity markets, a small amount of trading volume may cause significant fluctuations, while in high liquidity markets, the same amount of trading volume may only cause minor disturbances. Risk management: Even if the probability judgment is correct, unexpected events may still occur in the market. Therefore, stop loss, position management, and diversified investment are necessary supplements to probabilistic thinking. Probability based trading analysis acknowledges the randomness and uncontrollability of the market, while systematically searching for patterns in chaos. This way of thinking is not only applicable to the analysis of buying and selling volume, but also to any technical or fundamental analysis. Through multidimensional analysis, traders can construct a more three-dimensional market model, reducing the risk of misjudgment caused by single data Review and iteration: Record the signal basis and results of each transaction, analyze which factors increase the winning rate and which lead to misjudgment. Continuously optimizing the trading system to adapt to different market environments. Resolving Paradoxes: Balancing Simplicity and Complexity The relationship between buying and selling volume and price fluctuations may seem simple, but it creates a paradox due to the complexity of the market. The key to resolving this paradox lies in: Admitting limitations: A single data can never fully explain the market, but it can serve as a starting point. Embracing complexity: Through multidimensional analysis and probabilistic thinking, a single data or indicator is integrated into a larger market framework. Maintain flexibility: The market is dynamic, and traders need to adjust their strategies based on real-time data and the environment, rather than sticking to a single logic. Ultimately, the success of a transaction does not lie in finding a "perfect" indicator or formula, but in continuously accumulating advantages in an uncertain market through systematic analysis and disciplined execution.