The US dollar index has gone through a Christmas tree trend in the past six months and has fallen below the starting point of October last year. The driving logic is threefold: 1. The short-term concern is that Trump is really trying to remove Powell, so the Federal Reserve basically has no independence to speak of. The relatively independent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve over the past century has also supported the US financial market and credit. Of course, if the relatively rational Besant in Trump's team can dissuade Trump from really trying this threat, it will also impact the market in the short term. 2. Mid term concerns about unexpected policies and repeated uncertainties leading to further economic weakness or even recession in the future, as economic fundamentals are an important support for currency. 3. Longer term factors: recently, Trump wielded his broadsword at his allies, which raised doubts about whether the United States could continue to lead the global order, and whether the US debt and the US dollar could continue to be the cornerstone of safe assets, leading to the withdrawal of funds. What needs to be considered is the likelihood of these three different logics happening in the future, and to what extent will the market price them? Where is the possibility of future relief? Or who will be the catalyst for further strengthening current expectations?