Adam@Greeks.live|4月 18, 2025 01:49
Option delivery data on April 18th23000 BTC options have expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.96, a maximum pain point of $82000, and a nominal value of $1.97 billion.
177000 ETH options have expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a maximum pain point of $1600, and a nominal value of $280 million.
The market has become much milder this week, and there hasn't been as much news released by Trump this week. The market immediately cooled down. At present, the short-term RV is only 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. In the medium to long term, RV ranges from 50% to 60%, while IV is concentrated around 50%. We expect that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will continue for a long time, with market fluctuations also continuing for a long time.
The delivery volume accounts for less than 10% of the total holdings, and PCR has been maintaining a high level recently, reflecting that the market's concerns about a decline have clearly outweighed expectations of an increase. The option holdings in April and June remained around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure and a high possibility of sideways trading. But now is the painful period of a complete bull to bear transition, and investor sentiment is relatively low. In this poor bull to bear market, the probability of a black swan occurring will significantly increase, and buying some deep bearish values would be a good choice.
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