🇺🇸🪖 The US currently spends more on interest than on its military. Ferguson’s Law, proposed by historian Niall Ferguson, suggests that when a great power’s interest payments exceed its defense spending, it signals the onset of imperial decline. Looking at the data: 📆 Interest payments surpassed military spending in 1991, from 1994 to 2000, and consistently since 2023. 📊 The interest to military spending ratio ros from 0.3 in the 1960s to 1.14 in 2024. 💸 In 2024, the US spent 1.10 trillion on interest payments vs. 968 billion on military expenditures. 🧭 While too early to say definitively, we may be witnessing the onset of US decline as a global power. Why now and not between 1991 and 2001? Because the earlier period saw: 📈 Strong economic growth 🌍 Unrivaled global leadership ➕ Fiscal reforms producing budget surpluses 💵 Sustained confidence in the US dollar Debt-to-GDP stood at 60–67% in 1991–2001. Today, it’s at 124%. The emergence of 🇨🇳 China as a global competitor amplifies long-term risks. Regardless of whether current policies are rational or effective in reversing fiscal trends, these pressures may partially explain the Trump administration’s approach— 🚢 including the trade war, 🏛️ the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and 🪖 potentially a reduced global military presence. 📉 In the worst case, these policies may not only prove ineffective, but may accelerate the decline of the US as the leading global power—and of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.