1. Federal Reserve decisions depend on tariffs2. Data composition In terms of specific composition: ① The decrease in CPI this time is mainly due to the rapid decline of "energy items" ② The "housing item" with the highest weight continues to show a trend of slowing growth rate ③ However, the "core commodity items" that are most susceptible to tariff shocks have not changed much, so market concerns about tariffs cannot be ruled out In the past, this was originally a good data, but now during the tariff negotiation period, the lower than expected CPI data cannot dispel market concerns about the impact on the tariff supply side, but instead increases pricing for the economic weakness in the next 90 days (tariff suspension period). The reason behind this is that if it weren't for the cancellation of tariffs, the Federal Reserve would have had to wait for a "relief style interest rate cut" on the eve of an economic recession, and Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current "hard data" of the economy is not weak enough. Summary: All eyes on TRUMP TARRIFS.