In 2022 my biggest mistake was being too eager to redeploy and full-porting $40k BTC when the opportunity presented itself. Was sitting in 95% cash end of ‘21 so felt pretty good but eager to rebuild exposure when prices collapsed. Handful of sharp PMs in other funds called for bottom with conviction, and it seemed like a good idea to counter-trade prevailing sentiment. BTC bottomed around $15k later that year. Was able to get out long before that and did nothing except venture + the Luna play and ended the year up (until FTX took 10% of the entire book, what a year lol), but lessons stuck with me on how badly things could have gone. Few years here now I know I have a decent hit rate with calling HTF crypto tops + mixed at calling bottoms (and piss poor at shorting). A closed system has been relatively easy to study as there is often only one big spigot. In 2021 it was LP interest in funds, 2023 interest in ETF/ BTC. Crypto - or at least BTC - is now subject to more exogenous factors than all past cycles, and is now even part of the macro machine. Calling tops and bottoms will likely be much more multi-variate and harder. But constantly remembering “being greedy when others are fearful” is purely subjective (how greedy? how fearful?) probably can lead to better outcomes than blind sentiment fading.