The operation on Tuesday was more difficult than that on Monday. Although they thought that Trump's tariffs on China would be tough, they did not expect that they would be so straightforward. The 104% tariff would be implemented. Although there is no big difference between 54% and 104%, it is unfavorable for the economic environment. The United States has not made good and cheap Chinese products, and it will be more difficult for China to obtain American electronic and technological products. Not only that, the processing industry in China will be greatly impacted, and China's unemployment rate may increase under such tariffs. After the announcement of the 104% tariff, both cryptocurrencies and the US stock market experienced a decline. The Nasdaq and S&P both went from rising to falling, and the VIX once again returned to around 50. The sentiment of the entire risk market was once again hit. With the White House's announcement, it is estimated that the heads of China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Foreign Affairs will also have headaches tonight, and tomorrow may face China's countermeasures. In fact, the figures on tariffs are not very meaningful now. Even if China raises the tariffs on the United States to 110%, the ultimate result is that the trade between the two countries will inevitably be greatly affected, and the unlucky ones will be the people. From the perspective of the risk market, although tariffs may depress the market, and the White House and Trump have disclosed that they will not consider tariff reduction unless it is helpful to the employment and trade deficit of the United States, the implementation of tariffs is a foregone conclusion, but there is still a great chance that the final tariffs announced by the United States on April 9 will be lower than that on April 2. If this happens, it may be an opportunity to take a breath in the risk market. After all, tariffs have been settled, and as long as Trump does not bother to make changes in two or three days, the rest will be left to time. Of course, the best possibility is that Trump announced to suspend the implementation of tariffs on April 9, but the possibility is relatively low. After all, Trump himself said yesterday that he did not intend to suspend. In response to this situation, the market increased its expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in 2025, from four times to five times. Many people may think that this is a good thing, but in fact, it is not. The reason for increasing the frequency of interest rate cuts is because the market expects tariffs to promote the US economy into recession, and the Federal Reserve chooses defensive interest rate cuts to prevent the economy from falling into recession. However, from my personal understanding of the Federal Reserve, this possibility is still very low. After all, from a historical perspective, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about economic recession and inflation, and the possibility of interest rate cuts starting in May is too low unless there is already an economic recession leading to a decline in inflation. I can also understand the market's expectations, and the release of GDP data based on the end of April may be the beginning of the economic game. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, today's turnover rate has decreased compared to yesterday, mainly due to a better mood today. However, unfortunately, after the White House announced the 104% tariff in the evening, the market fell again. In fact, we can see a viewpoint here that, except for the tariff speech on April 2nd, the recent decline is all related to China's tariffs. The market may be concerned about the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States, which is relatively light for BTC, but the impact on the US stock market is even greater. China's reaction tomorrow may prompt the short-term US stock market to fall again. Another important data is URPD, which clearly shows that although the price of Bitcoin has returned to below $77000, there is no significant decrease in the number of investors at the $93000 to $98000 level, only a decrease of more than 5000 BTC. This indicates that the current selling pressure is not from these loss making investors, but rather from the data, more investors around $83000 have experienced losses and exited. There is still a big gap between this situation and the past, especially since the top losers have not panicked, so the downward pressure on prices may not be significant, but it is unclear whether they can withstand the pressure of economic recession. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex