Sharing my own note that I jotted down on how I'm thinking about next steps in the market for any trader who wants to compare to their own lens. Long read, but mine is more policy and supply chain driven, so could be a good supplement to your analysis. (NFA) Where we go from here: It's worth noting, that market optimism today stems from hope someone blinks, but also that we are at the point of max uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty. But we also have a good habit in the "nothing ever happens" era of assuming that certainty has a positive bias. At the very least, certainty lets us better price the market, meaning you likely don't get surprising dips after the repricing. The strongest repricing to the downside would come after the Q1 earnings cycle (if tariffs persist) Valuations alone won't end a stock cycle though. All that matters here is: -What are tariffs going to look like *long* term. -How does that impact rates. -How certain are we in the consistency of those decisions. Anything else will impact the *pace* of how quickly we get to a fair price, but not what that price is. Everything else is simply a bet on pace over volatility - and not a reflection of predicted earnings, since we can't truly know without those variables. To me, it seems unlikely that we get away from a tariff regime wholly, and I think the market is too optimistic in the deal structure, and that the Fed is deeply committed to not repeating prior mistakes of not taking inflation seriously. We likely move to a regime of a 10%-20% set of tariffs globally with a few industry exemptions, moderating growth (maybe not fully recessionary, but certainly flat at best) - and at least a one time price bump in pain. Market repricing therefore on positive policy news (lower tariffs than top proposed) will be a short lived rally bringing us to the mid 5k on S&P (5350 - 5575 maybe?) but that will face a grind down as inventory decays, margins get repriced, and buying slows due to a higher cost of living. That repricing reality likely peaks with Q1 earnings (jun - august) where we can be more confident in the forward earnings estimates, new margin estimates, and therefore forward looking P/E and yields. If tariffs are signaled to be at these levels long term, and we do not see policy movement from Congress that is likely to reach a supermajority on reeling in tariffs, then we likely move to one of two scenarios: 1) A long term cheap P/E basket of staples, healthcare, bottomed out financials, and investment in foreign countries who can gain from new trade blocs, nearshoring, regional trade, and resources (Canada, Poland, Vietnam, Philippines) Or if background inflation seems not one time: 2) A stagflation basket, with a US focus, short on tech, long on domestic healthcare, long on commodities producers, long on budget consumer staples, long on low end retail (dollar stores/walmart post repricing), short on higher end staples and retail (starbucks, target), also consider US dollar denoted bonds from non-US jurisdictions like Canada and Mexico, and any reasonable revenue P/E crypto projects (stables, lending markets) if we've bottomed out. Lastly, if tariffs do not stay, we can expect US trade and economy is still long term hurt from uncertainty, and geo political strife, but prioritize a different basket: 3) Well priced rebound tech (nvidia, microsoft, goog), commodities (oil and copper), US financials broad (both bank and non-bank), insurance with high yield and moderate P/E, rebound in tariff hit retailers (RH, Nike, Boeing, CAT, Deere, Apple) US automakers who are on the ropes and at good valuations (Ford, GM), add to risk on positions in long term crypto.