The Importance of Basic Probability: Why is there only one "coolness" and the vast majority of people will lose money in short-term trading? The famous "1:2:7 rule" states that in the futures market: Out of 100 people, 70 people suffer long-term losses, 20 people break even, and only 10 people can make money. Among the 10 people who make money, 7 engage in trend trading, 2 engage in band trading, and 1 engage in short-term trading. Looking at another set of data: 100 people make trends, 70 people survive; 100 people work on the band, 20 people survive; 100 people engage in short-term trading, only 10 people survive. The conclusion is clear: the short-term success rate is extremely low. But the question is, why are so many people still desperately doing short-term trading? Because short-term trading brings instant feedback, it is as exciting and refreshing as playing a game: One strike, drop the equipment Sell to take profit and receive immediately It's irresistible. And trend trading is like fitness: It takes a long time to accumulate, there isn't as much positive feedback, and many people can't handle it. Mid to long term trend trading tests human nature more and goes against human nature. When there is profit, you have to restrain your impulse and not sell easily; When there is a floating loss, you have to stick to your beliefs and not easily cut losses. But only this model is the correct path that most people can relatively 'easily' adhere to. If someone dreams of quickly doubling or tenfold through short-term gains, then you have to be crazy enough and have unlimited bullets. The path for ordinary people to truly achieve stable profits is mostly one: Mid to long term trend trading. Take BTC