qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Mar 28, 2025 13:06
The just released February PCE data for the United States showed that the year-on-year and month on month PCE met expectations, while the core PCE slightly exceeded expectations. 1. From a data perspective, it's not good that the core PCE slightly exceeded expectations. However, according to the Nick tweet from the Federal Reserve News Agency, the institutional consistency expectation of 2.75, rounded to 2.8%, may be the expected result. From this perspective, it can be considered neither good nor bad. 2. The personal income and expenditure data is considered good, with a month on month increase of 0.8% in personal income, higher than the expected 0.4% and higher than the previous value. Personal expenses were 0.4% lower than the expected 0.5% month on month, but higher than the previous value. The total amount of income obtained from various sources, including wages, rental income, dividends, and social welfare. It reflects the actual purchasing power level and consumption ability of consumers, and income is closely related to expenditure. The more available income a consumer has, the greater the probability of their expenditure increasing, which is more beneficial to the economy. The United States is also a major consumer country, and the month on month growth rate of income actually exceeds the month on month growth rate of core PCE. Personal income and expenditure data also confirm that the United States has not entered a recession at present. 3. But the overall data is not lower than expected, and it has not boosted or advanced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The upward momentum of PCE mentioned earlier is not very strong. Moreover, the data is not good enough to make the market ignore the impact of the 4.2 tariff landing in the short term, and it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate in the short term.
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