Expected to cut interest rates twiceIt is obvious that there is a mismatch between policy and market, and if the Federal Reserve is not as dovish as market expectations, it will actually suppress asset prices. There is another point that may be overlooked: Consumer inflation expectations at the University of Michigan have soared to 4.9%, far higher than real inflation (2.7-2.8%), which Old Bao believes is an "outlier", but market concerns about the resurgence of inflation have increased. Once inflation remains high and expectations of monetary easing fail, a bull market can easily turn into an illusion Finally, apart from the United States, the economic confidence in Europe and China is weak, and consumption levels are declining. The strong US stock market but poor global synchronicity may be a "false impression" that a local bull market is masking the weak global structure Some people believe that the market is in a "disguise period" at the boundary between bull and bear, and I agree with this view. However, looking at it now, we may still experience a 6-12 month panic period, and cautious investment is the best choice now.