Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)|3月 18, 2025 17:31
-53M operating cash flow, -1.06B in levered free cash flow,and now wants to issue a 10% perpetual interest on 500M - why?
Simple:
Dec 2025 the first convertible bond is due.
If they don’t pay back 650M in cash it converts to stock.
BUT the conversion was at 39.80 not the present stock price.
So they’d pay out 16.33M new shares at a value of 4.6B for the 650M in cash they got in 2020.
That’d be 7.1x the cost compared to the 8x gain they had on those buys:
which after operational costs, and interest means Saylor will have ***lost*** money on buying Bitcoin at $10k even with the price at $80k
These bond issues continue to worsen each year, diluting the equity they’ve been issuing against.
So this action is desperate but not for the reason people think.
He’s not just desperate to buy more Bitcoin.
He is desperate to have enough cash to stave off the conversion.
Because if this converts, then the book value of the gains goes to 0%.
If that happens, you get a price collapse in MSTR and it only starts to get worse the more that premium crunches.
His greed of top blasting and leveraging on every move, could genuinely mean he bought 650M of Bitcoin at $10k and makes 0 on it.
Historically unbelievable fumble.
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