𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|3月 15, 2025 16:16
BTC's compounded gains have kept up with the S&P (~13% 4yr CAGR) albeit with higher volatility. Based on the long term pattern in the chart, it seems unlikely to return to sustaining 30%+ annualized. It remains intriguing due to its open source design, fixed terminal supply, and transactional freedom, but buy and hold requires increasing patience.
What concerns me is that its non-price based properties- immutability and censorship resistance-, could begin to fade in attractiveness as govt sinks its tendrils in. What happens to the value proposition of Bitcoin if, at the same time as its returns have converged with more mainstream investments, large swaths of supply and hash have become centralized in domestic entities?
This is thinking several steps down the line, but the past half year has me pondering adversarial outcomes more frequently.
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