Will|3月 10, 2025 21:57
I've been generally htf bearish for a bit now but starting to think about the other side. Trump has been successful in getting the markets/yields down from his inauguration to date. It's better to rip the band-aid off and then claim responsibility for the recovery for goldfish-memory voters heading into mid-terms. I think the most important questions to ask now are:
A) How long does it take for a fiscal rug pull-driven economic slowdown lead to lower economic prints, higher unemployment, and lower inflation prints sufficient for the Fed to ease OR when would/will something break?
B) At what levels do we price in castrated public sector spending?
C) What levels am I eying for quality assets that I would feel a margin of safety to hold for years?
A) Answer is eventually yes, but unlikely here unless something breaks.
B) I don't know, it's difficult given how reflexively intertwined markets & the economy are.
C) I have some in mind, we are getting pretty close to what I think is deep value on Bitcoin.
So basically I'm waiting for Trump/Powell to flash the bat signal, which they eventually will either out of their own will or because they're forced to, -OR- we simply identify areas of interest for quality assets that you want to hold for the long term and think are fundamentally good prices.
I do think coming out of this drawdown, which would either come from months of chop and the economy growing into valuations or a quick drawdown met with stimulus, Bitcoin will eventually run to $200k+ within the years of the Trump administration -- This would be especially so in the case of the sharp drawdown and v recovery scenario, you'd probably get accelerating inflation, higher yields, and less general interest in holding US debt, which would be very positive for Bitcoin. Regardless, this too shall pass.
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