Phyrex|Mar 09, 2025 12:45
I just checked the data of Bitcoin open contracts on all exchanges in the past year, and the current open contracts (priced in BTC) are at a relatively low level in the past year, basically the number after May 2024, and there is a possibility of further decline. This also indicates that investors' risk aversion is rising, and they are in a state of confusion about the price of BTC.
In human terms, if investors have a unified direction, whether they are bullish or bearish, it will cause the open contract to rise, similar to betting on the direction. However, the continuous decline of the open contract indicates that investors are currently confused about the direction, so they are unwilling and emotionally gamble on the direction.
To put it another way, if the market unanimously believes it is a bear market, then a large number of investors will go short, and contracts that have not been liquidated will not experience a sharp decline. Similarly, if investors believe that there will be opportunities for a continued bull market in the future, then there will also be a large number of investors who will go long at low prices.
The current situation is that a large number of investors have started to reduce leverage when BTC prices are not experiencing significant fluctuations. On the one hand, it should be that the short-term positive news for BTC itself has ended, such as Bitcoin's strategic reserves, and on the other hand, there is uncertainty in macro data.
At this time, it may be safest to take a wait-and-see approach, as BTC, with its abundant wealth, may not have no opportunity to buy at low prices.
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