BTC - Is it a repeat of the old trick or a new one? The medium-term bearish trend is basically established ✔️ Short term testing daily gap of 78000-81000 ✔️ It should also be noted that there are a large number of uncleared high multiples near the daily gap (78000-80000) The first thing to clarify is that, Anyway, it seems like a technical bear market on the market now There are currently two potential scripts: 1. Bull market correction (technical bearish) - personal bias Technical short selling usually occurs once every round, that is, after reaching a high-level top, it falls below the key medium-term upward trend range (currently around 87000-90000) The previous round of technical short selling of Bitcoin saw a roughly 50% retracement at its high point (starting from 312 and continuing to rise unilaterally to 6.4w, with little occurrence of pullbacks or consolidation in the middle). Unlike this round, which broke through 32000 at the end of 2023 and has now experienced a six-month consolidation period The overall cost of chips in the market has also increased during this period (which means that profit taking positions with "bear market" costs are facing less selling pressure) Therefore, if it is a 50% historical drawdown valuation, the probability of reaching it is relatively small (corresponding to the demand range of 52000-57000) From a technical perspective (as mentioned in yesterday's analysis), there are currently two key support positions that need attention: 1. Daily level gap: 78000-81000 2. High support level before the previous main wave rise: 7000-74000 (revised) The corresponding high point retracement range is approximately 28% -35%, which is in line with the "chip angle" retracement adjustment. Near these two key positions, a new round of bottom will be reconstructed and a new breakthrough of 100000 will be made 2. Niu Mo Xiong Chu (cycle change) From this perspective, the five wave structure at the weekly level has basically come to an end. If the market enters a bear market, the high support level of 7000-74000 in the previous main uptrend is likely to continue to be broken down There is also a chance for the price to return to the chip demand range of the previous consolidation period for a second round of chip exchange (this price range is approximately around 53000-60000) Complete another secondary rebound, with a corresponding high point pullback of approximately 47-52% (consistent with the previous round), thus constructing a larger level of top structure The current major trading opportunities are nothing more than betting on a secondary rebound or V-shaped reversal, whether it is a bottom or not, a rebound is not a bottom, and the bottom is not achieved overnight In the short term, we need to observe the emergence of two key reversal opportunities supporting 78000-81000 and 70000-74000