International ratings agency, Fitch, yesterday (February 21, 2025) affirmed Jamaica's Credit Rating at Double B minus (BB-) with a positive rating outlook. The ratings “reflect stronger governance than the peer median, significant progress with debt reduction, a sound fiscal framework and a strong political commitment to deliver large primary surpluses.” “The Positive Outlook reflects Fitch's expectation of continued improvement in debt metrics and further strengthening of the policy framework over the next few years, including climate risk mitigants.” “Fitch projects a balanced budget in FY25/26 moving to a deficit of nearly 1% of GDP in fiscal 2026/27, which would still be in line with reaching the government's debt target of 60% on time by fiscal year 2027/28.” “Jamaica faced a 3.5% GDP decline in 3Q24 due in large part to the damages caused by Hurricane Beryl in July 2024. A tropical storm and continuous rains further dented growth in 4Q24 with growth falling a further 0.7%.” “Fitch forecasts real growth to rebound to 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, in line with its medium-term potential rate (around 1%-2%). Fitch highlights the crime rate, low productivity and vulnerability to external shocks, (including weather-related) as factors that subdue Jamaica’s growth potential. These are all areas that the government is focused on. We are making significant gains in crime reduction. We are investing in human capital development to increase productivity. We are also building buffers to strengthen our resilience to disasters through a multi-layered approach to disaster risk financing including the National Disaster Fund, a Contingent Credit Claim with the IDB, the Caribbean Catastrophe Reinsurance Facility, and a Catastrophe Bond.