Macro outlook for next week: Traders resume pricing for Fed's pre-September rate cuts, US dollar fever subsides

This week's CPI report showed an increase in US consumer inflation, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell admitted that more work needs to be done to alleviate price pressures in the economy, leading to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. However, the subsequent weak retail sales data has brought some hope to people. Wall Street's ability to handle dramatic events has once again been exercised. The fact once again proves that traders are capable of handling this task, and ultimately the overall market was not greatly affected. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: On Monday at 22:30, the 2026 FOMC vote committee and Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck gave a speech; At 23:20 on Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Bauman delivered a speech; On Tuesday at 23:20, the 27th FOMC vote committee and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley delivered a speech; At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting; Thursday 21:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending February 15th in the United States, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for February; On Thursday at 22:35, Gulsby, the chairman of the Chicago Fed and a member of the FOMC voting committee for 2025, delivered a speech; On Friday at 01:05, Chairman of the St. Louis Fed and a member of the FOMC voting committee, Musa Lem, delivered a speech at the New York Economic Club; At 22:45 on Friday, the initial values of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/Service PMI for February in the United States; At 23:00 on Friday, the final values of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the expected one-year inflation rate for February in the United States will be released. After Powell's semi annual testimony and January inflation data, investors are unlikely to pay too much attention to the minutes of next week's Federal Reserve January meeting. So the focus may be on the February S&P Global PMI data next Friday. A PMI below 50 may put pressure on the US dollar and push up gold. A survey conducted by Bank of America in February of over 50 fund managers worldwide showed that betting on the strength of the US dollar is still considered the most crowded position among interest rate and currency traders. Nearly half of investors still expect the US dollar exchange rate to peak in the first quarter of this year.