Don't give up on the cryptocurrency market, the dawn is in 2025 Let's reorganize the logic of this bull market. Let's start with the conclusion 🔽 Judging from the market trend of Bitcoin rising from $25000 to $70000 in September 2023, this surge is entirely driven by incremental institutional funds. However, it should be noted that institutions mainly buy Bitcoin, while altcoins belong to the passive trend of following the rise. The shanzhai market is mainly driven by speculative investors, institutions, and individual investors within the industry, creating hot topics to hype up the first stage of the market and causing serious differentiation. The bull market in this cycle is essentially a dual awakening of institutional and individual investors' cognition, where everyone sees their strengths and weaknesses and builds bridges when faced with difficulties. The question is: How should we make money next? According to the four-year cycle logic: 2017 bull market The bull market of 2021 Bull Market in 2025 If this year is really a bull market, why can't we see any shadow of the market now? Cause analysis: one ️⃣ Bitcoin has been rising continuously for over a year, and institutions have basically completed their entry into the market The current position of Bitcoin is relatively high, and institutions need a clearer policy environment and price advantage to continue buying. The funds that want to enter tend to wait for the implementation of US policies and a more ideal entry price. two ️⃣ What is the next step for Bitcoin? Bitcoin has been lifted to such a high position by institutions, and ultimately it has to choose its direction: Either continue to fall out of the bottom Either it rises directly to the sky Either the horizontal oscillation grinds out the bottom Personal judgment: The most reasonable scenario is a slight correction followed by a sideways oscillation. Institutional holdings are large, and it is unlikely to experience a 70-80% drop as frequently as in 2017. three ️⃣ Are institutions starting to pay attention to altcoins? In the previous bull market, traditional institutions led by Grayscale bought a large number of mainstream altcoins. In this bull market, there are rumors that the Trump family has started to invest in altcoins. It is currently uncertain whether this will become a signal for institutions to refocus on the counterfeit market. Is the crypto market really out of opportunities? no Opportunities always exist. one ️⃣ Changes in Policy and Financial Environment The macroeconomic combination of the past few months may lead to a decline in inflation. If the logic holds, the probability of the Federal Reserve releasing water again in Q3 2025 still exists. If Q3 continues to release water, the Q4 cryptocurrency market is likely to experience a hot market trend. two ️⃣ The rotation opportunity of altcoins The size of the cryptocurrency market is already very large, no longer as singular as it was in 2017 and 2021. Although this has led to accelerated sector rotation and weakened wealth effects, it has also provided investors with more opportunities for segmented tracks. Operation strategy: Speculation on counterfeit coins without following the bull bear mentality No matter how Bitcoin adjusts, there will always be opportunities in the counterfeit market. Remember one sentence: Money never sleeps. Be patient like a hunter, waiting for prey to appear.