How to view the disconnect between on chain and macro? Last night, I didn't feel good about the market trend, and the news from the SEC encryption working group boosted the market for a few hours before it fell. I also saw the latest article on Glassnode at night// (x.com)/glassnode/status/1882053317846876171? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, I just had a chat with Brother M. From the data on the chain, it can be seen that long-term holders continued to distribute profits in November and December, accompanied by several huge profit appearances. The recent 20 day suspension means that the market demand is insufficient to sustain the distribution, which is indeed a warning signal for long-term holders. However, from a macro perspective: Trump has just taken the market and is still in the process of favorable actions and policies for the future encryption industry (the SEC encryption working group was the first action in the early morning yesterday). After reaching the debt ceiling, the Ministry of Finance spent money to promote the return of liquidity. At the same time, cme futures of sol and xrp have made everyone vaguely expect, and the US stock market still looks like a rainbow. How do we view the scenario where the on chain and macro are so disconnected? My understanding is that the previous cycle (20-21) and this cycle (23 years to present) were mixed with various macro, policy, and external favorable factors and events. The top often oscillates repeatedly for a long time, rather than a pointed tip. Especially since the 23rd year, this cycle of the cryptocurrency market has been completely different from before, with three major levels of trend market trends: January to April of 2023, mid October to early April of 2024, and October to the present. We will look at the three major trend markets from March to May 2021, October to December 2021, and the past two years to see if they are all a dome, so it is very likely that we are currently in the top range of this major trend market. But there are still positive expectations in the macro market (as mentioned above), so it is very likely to be higher than the search volatility several times. Overall, before mid to late February, incomplete bearish sentiment is a high-level volatility. But it feels like it's just a small wave of short-term market trends, and with a policy boost, the big pie may not be affected or the magnitude of the trend may decrease until all the encryption policies come out. Then CME really launched Sol and XRP futures, which may have exhausted expectations for a period of time in the future. For high cycle players, the best strategy may be to fight and retreat while playing. Because the risk will increase after March and April, the pain of Trump's policy may appear. After the debt ceiling agreement is reached, the Ministry of Finance will re issue bonds to extract liquidity from the market. Many people believe that high volatility is a sign of strength, but from a different perspective, it is also a consumption of buying potential. Of course, unless there is a huge benefit, for example, Trump has really included Bitcoin in the US national reserve (the general policy benefit should not be as strong as this benefit). With the current low market expectations, it is likely to stimulate a wave of animal spirits, which is likely to pull the pie out of the current shock range. We'll see when we get there. Speaking of small coins, in the past year they have caused a lot of collapse. Many people believe that it is due to insufficient liquidity, and the more important reason is the change in market perception. People are increasingly unwilling to play purely narrative games. The liquidity of the US stock market has always been good, but the differentiation of the US stock market has always been severe, only becoming more extreme in the past year. Around November 20th, it was discussed that a stable ATH would lead to an increase in market risk appetite, while there would be a wave of small coins, but it was only a wave. Looking back now, except for a few strong small coins, the vast majority of them did indeed flow out in just one or two weeks.