Daan Crypto Trades
Daan Crypto Trades|1月 16, 2025 12:10
About Large Token Unlocks 📚 Large token unlocks are a bit difficult to navigate as price action into and after the event, can vary greatly. On one hand, the unlock is known in advance, there's usually OTC sales before and also a lot of hedging (which unwinds after). The latter also causes funding rates to go deeply into the negative which means shorts are paying a hefty premium to keep their positions open. On the other hand, it is still a large unlock and can sometimes account for a 100%+ supply increase. So even if a relatively small part of the tokens get sold on the open market, it will weigh down on price. Generally speaking, what happens is very market and team/investor dependent. Some teams/investors opt to extend the unlock or have put in measures (by selling OTC against a discount with a vesting attached) to limit the potential selling when the unlock occurs. This spreads out the potential supply hitting the market over a longer period of time to help absorb the selling. Also, when the market is going ballistic and everything is pumping, these unlocks usually just tend to squeeze out the shorts that have piled in and the actual selling doesn't come until the market has cooled off. So there's no easy approach here, it's dependent on multiple variables. Usually people trying to trade it get chopped up or eat a lot of funding rates when doing so. I've tried trading these in previous years with varied results. But have found no clear edge personally.
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