Cryptocurrency expert: The Ethereum (ETH) rebound on November 16 is not a reversal; stabilization does not mean a bottom: What signals are needed to confirm the subsequent market trend?
The first step into Ethereum spot has begun, below 2000 for the first step, the second step at 1500. First, let’s look at the current trading that has reached the pre-market plan, and the intraday trading plan can follow. For contracts, let’s first observe the market. This wave has seen a rapid decline from a high position, and many people are stuck halfway up the mountain. Currently, the biggest taboo is becoming emotionally charged and eager to break even. The market will not move in your direction just because you are anxious; the daily line is still in a bearish arrangement, and the four-hour line has only paused after a significant drop. Do not mistake the rebound for a reversal. I myself have attempted three times heading north and have stopped out every time. Stopping out is not admitting defeat; it is leaving yourself a ticket for the next entry. The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is capital and patience.
The daily candlestick belongs to a corrective bullish line after a sharp decline. In terms of moving averages, EMA15 is at 2070, EMA30 is at 2199, and EMA60 is at 2291, with prices all below these moving averages. In the medium term, it remains a bearish arrangement, and the current rebound can only be viewed as a correction after the drop. The MACD indicator's double line is below the zero axis and opening downward, and the trend momentum has not yet shown a clear reversal. The Bollinger Band midline is at 2164, the upper band at 2509, and the lower band at 1819, with the current price sticking close to the lower band. It is oversold in the short term but has not yet broken out of the channel. Overall, the daily line appears weak and needs to be observed whether it can recover and close above the 1844 level with increased volume and retake the short-term moving average; otherwise, there remains the possibility of a second bottom after the rebound.
The four-hour candlestick moving averages show EMA15 at 1868, EMA30 at 1940, and EMA60 at 2039, with prices below EMA15. The short cycle is also in a bearish pattern, and the 1868 area has become the first resistance for the rebound. In terms of the MACD, the double line is below the zero axis, but the green bars have noticeably narrowed compared to the previous period, indicating that the downward momentum has weakened, showing initial signs of stabilization at low levels; however, a golden cross reversal has not yet formed. The Bollinger Band upper band is at 2061, midline at 1903, and lower band at 1745, with the price running between the mid and lower bands, where 1745 is the short-term support for the lower channel. The four-hour aspect resembles a consolidation after a sharp decline, and the direction choice needs to wait for moving averages to converge or break through with volume; at the moment, it is not suitable to directly consider this rebound as a reversal.
Short-term reference:
Going south from 1840 to 1880 encounters resistance; stop-loss at 30 points; target views 1850 to break at 1800 and look at 1750.
If it retraces to 1745—1710 where the Bollinger lower band and previous low area show stabilization signals, it can be used as an observation area for heading north, placing a stop-loss below the integer level of 1700. Above, it first looks at 1808—1841, then at 1868. If it directly stabilizes at 1868 with increased volume and does not break on a retrace, the bearish structure needs to be reassessed.
Specific operations should be based on real-time market data; for more detailed information, you can consult the author. There may be delays in article publication, so it is recommended for reference only at your own risk.
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