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Today's Observation
NVIDIA replaced its helm before the third quarter earnings report. According to the 8-K document submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the board accepted Jensen Huang's resignation as president, CEO, and director, effective immediately on November 11, and announced it publicly on the 12th. Colette Kress, who has served as CFO since 2013, became the interim CEO while retaining her original position. The board has initiated a formal search for a successor, considering both internal and external candidates.
After the announcement of the leadership change, NVIDIA's stock price dropped about 14% during trading, before narrowing its decline, ultimately closing at $166.19, down 4.34%. On the same trading day, AMD and Broadcom rose approximately 5.9% and 5.5%, respectively, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ composite indexes both fell about 0.4%. This set of movements reflects the market's reassessment of NVIDIA's advantages in the next round of AI chip procurements and the possibility of competitors gaining more orders.
Data in a Minute
• The board appointed Harvey C. Jones, who has served as a director since 1993, as the first chairman of NVIDIA's board.
• NVIDIA's FY2027 Q2 revenue is approximately $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%. This includes data center revenue of $89 billion, a year-over-year increase of 117%, accounting for about 92.5% of total revenue.
• The median revenue guidance provided by the company for FY2027 Q3 is $108 billion, with a fluctuation range of 2%. The median GAAP and adjusted gross margin guidance is both 74%, down from 75% in Q2. This revenue guidance does not include data center computing revenue from the Chinese market.
• The Q3 earnings report will still be released as planned, scheduled for November 18 at 05:20 Beijing time, with a conference call beginning at 06:00.
MSX View
The first thing this transition needs to validate is whether Vera Rubin can expand delivery as planned. The board stated that it expects operations, customer commitments, and product roadmaps to continue to advance. There has already been tangible progress on the customer side, with CoreWeave disclosing in its latest earnings report that it has launched multiple-rack Vera Rubin NVL72 and has started running customer production workloads. Going forward, investors can assess the pace at which the new platform moves from early deployment to large-scale delivery based on shipping progress, next quarter's revenue guidance, and gross margins.
The rise of AMD and Broadcom also has its own business backgrounds. AMD has disclosed that Helios complete systems are running on Meta, while Broadcom benefits from the demand for custom AI accelerators and network equipment. Large customers can choose different platforms based on workloads, allocating some inference or internal applications to more suitable chips. To determine whether the competitive landscape has truly changed, it is essential to see if these deployments can expand from initial launches to sustained procurements, and how many new orders come from budgets that clients originally planned to allocate to other platforms.
Kress also faces a capital allocation issue. The updated prospectus from Anthropic shows that NVIDIA plans to participate in a supporting private placement after its IPO completion, subscribing approximately $10 billion. As NVIDIA takes on the roles of both chip supplier and customer investor, two key points are worth hearing clearly at the earnings report: how strong the clients' own computing procurement needs are, and how much capital NVIDIA intends to use to support customer expansions. Rubin's delivery pace, next quarter's gross margin, and customer financing arrangements are the three key indicators that can first be evaluated from operational data and management statements after this leadership change.
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Risk Warning: The macroeconomic environment and fluctuations in the US stock market are significant; the content of this article is for academic and research observation reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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