Crypto Scholar: November 13 Bitcoin (BTC) Oversold Does Not Mean It Has Bottomed Out: Three Confirmation Signals the Technical Analysis Really Needs to Wait For After Breaking Below the Lower Bound of the Daily Line

　　Short-term trading is about making money through timing, not guessing bottoms and tops. When you feel impulsive, first ask yourself: Is the position right? Has the signal appeared? Is the stop-loss set? If you cannot answer any of these three questions, do not act. The rebound after a sharp drop is the easiest to be deceived by; it may look like a reversal, but it's actually just a breather. Do not chase longs after a big bullish candle, nor chase shorts after a panic sell-off; wait until the price reaches the planned position before taking action.

　　The daily candlestick is a medium bearish candle with a lower shadow. The five EMA lines are all positioned above the current price, typical of a bearish pattern, with the price unable to reclaim even the shortest EMA 15. In terms of MACD, the dual lines continue to open below the zero axis, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released. The Bollinger Band’s middle track is at 77329, the upper track at 82569, and the lower track at 72088; the current price of 71930 has just broken below the lower track, indicating short-term oversold conditions, but oversold does not mean it has bottomed out. The overall daily level still shows a structure of rebounds under pressure and a downward shift in the center of gravity, with stability signals yet to appear.

　　The four-hour candlestick is a small bullish candle with a slight pullback. The price is operating below all moving averages in a bearish arrangement. The MACD has contracted compared to the previous rapid decline, indicating that the short-term selling pace is slowing down, and there is a technical pullback demand; however, the dual lines are still below the zero axis, and the pullback is more inclined to be a repair during the downward process, and a trend reversal has yet to be discussed. The Bollinger Band’s lower track is at 72000, the middle track at 73890, and the upper track at 75781; the current price is right at the edge of the lower track. The TD indicator shows 6, and the pullback count has not yet completed, so the strength of the pullback needs to be observed to see if it can reclaim the short-term moving average around 73400.

　　Short-term Reference:

　　Going long from 71200 to 70700 faces resistance, with a stop-loss of 500 points and a target of 72000 to 73000.

　　Going short from 73500 to 74000 faces stagnation, with a stop-loss of 500 points and a target of 73000 to 72000.

　　Specific operations should be based on real-time market data; for more information, you can contact the author. There may be a delay in article publication, and suggestions are for reference only; risks are assumed by yourself.

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