Crypto Circle Academician: 11.13 Bitcoin (BTC) overshooting does not equal bottoming out: Three confirmation signals that need to be waited for after the daily line breaks the lower track

　　Short-term trading profits are made from rhythm, not from guessing bottoms and tops. When feeling fidgety, first ask yourself: Is the position reached? Is there a signal? Is the stop-loss set? If you cannot answer any of these three questions, don’t make a move. The rebound after a sharp drop is most likely to mislead, appearing to be a reversal, but it's actually just catching its breath. Don’t chase longs after a big bullish candle, nor chase shorts after a panic sell-off, wait for the price to reach the planned position before taking action.

　　The daily candlestick is a medium bearish candle with a lower shadow. All five EMA lines are arranged above the current price, forming a typical bearish pattern, with the price unable to even stay above the shortest EMA15. On the MACD side, the dual lines continue to open below the zero axis, indicating that bearish momentum is still being released. The middle Bollinger Band is at 77329, the upper band at 82569, and the lower band at 72088, while the current price of 71930 has already broken below the lower band, showing a short-term overshoot, but overshooting does not equal bottoming out. The overall structure on the daily level is still under pressure from the rebound, with the center of gravity moving downwards, and a stabilization signal has yet to appear.

　　The four-hour candlestick shows a small bullish candle with slight retracement. The price runs below all moving averages in a bearish arrangement. Compared to the previous sharp drop, the MACD shows some convergence, indicating that the short-term bearish selling pace has slowed, creating a demand for a technical rebound; however, the dual lines remain below the zero axis, and the rebound is more about repairing during the decline rather than indicating a trend reversal. The lower Bollinger Band is at 72000, the middle band at 73890, and the upper band at 75781, with the current price just touching the edge of the lower band. The TD indicator shows 6, indicating that the retracement count has not yet completed, and the strength of the rebound needs to be observed to see if it can regain the short-term moving averages around 73400.

　　Short-term reference:

　　For the upward move from 71200 to 70700, stop-loss at 500 points, target at 72000 to 73000

　　For the downward move from 73500 to 74000, stop-loss at 500 points, target at 73000 to 72000

　　Specific operations should primarily rely on real-time data from the market. More detailed information can be consulted from the author; the article is published with a delay; it is advisable for reference only and risk is self-borne.

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