Crypto Circle Academician: 11.13 Bitcoin (BTC) Oversold Does Not Mean Bottomed: Three Confirmation Signals That The Technical Side Really Needs to Wait For After Daily Line Breaks the Lower Track

　　Short-term trading profits come from the rhythm money, not from guessing bottoms or tops. When feeling anxious, first ask yourself: Is the position reached? Is the signal out? Is the stop-loss set? If you can't answer any of these three questions, don't take action. The rebound after a sharp drop is the easiest to deceive; it looks like a reversal while it’s actually just catching its breath. Don’t chase long positions after a big bullish candle, and don’t chase short positions after a panic sell-off; wait until the price reaches the planned position to act.

　　The daily candlestick is a moderately bearish candle with a lower shadow. All five EMA lines are aligned above the current price, typical of a bearish pattern, and the price has not been able to reclaim even the shortest EMA15. In terms of MACD, the dual lines continue to open below the zero axis, with bearish momentum still being released. The Bollinger Bands show a middle track at 77329, an upper track at 82569, and a lower track at 72088, with the current price at 71930 having just broken the lower track; it is oversold in the short term, but oversold does not mean bottomed. The overall structure at the daily level is still one of rebounds being pressured, with a downward shift in the center of gravity, and stabilization signals have yet to appear.

　　The four-hour candlestick is a small bullish candle with a slight retracement. The price is running below all moving averages in a bearish arrangement. Compared to the previous sharp decline, the MACD has shown some convergence, indicating that the short-term selling pressure is slowing down, creating a technical rebound demand; however, the dual lines are still below the zero axis, and the rebound is more of a correction during the downtrend, not yet a trend reversal. The Bollinger Bands show a lower track at 72000, a middle track at 73890, and an upper track at 75781, with the current price just at the edge of the lower track. The TD indicator shows 6, and the pullback count has not yet completed; the strength of the rebound needs to be observed to see if it can regain the short moving averages around 73400.

　　Short-term references:

　　Going north from 71200 to 70700 is blocked, with a stop-loss of 500 points, targeting 72000 to 73000.

　　Going south from 73500 to 74000 is stagnant, with a stop-loss of 500 points, targeting 73000 to 72000.

　　Specific operations should be based on real-time data from the market; for more detailed information, you can consult the author. There may be delays in article publication, recommendations are for reference only, and risks are to be borne by oneself.

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