The sensitivity of this data is that the core CPI has exactly reached the conditions of the 50bp threat previously mentioned by Waller.

FedWatch shows that the market currently assigns a probability of 87.3% for a 25 basis point rate hike in December, and 12.7% for a 50 basis point hike.

Inflation demands a rate hike;

the financial markets and politicians do not demand a rate hike.

Time, however, high inflation also pushes up long-term bond yields and the cost of new debt issuance; not lowering interest rates does not mean the government’s cost of issuing debt decreases.

There is also a very critical point here:

The November CPI will not be released until mid-December, and the FOMC on December 9 will not have the data. In other words, the Federal Reserve has to decide whether to raise by 25 or 50 in an information vacuum.

In other words, before December 9, any rebound may be suppressed.

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