Today, before the CPI was released, Waller of the Federal Reserve issued a hawkish statement. As a 2026 voting member, he believes that December is the time to continue raising interest rates, and he also indicated that if the CPI data is greater than or equal to 0.3%, not only should interest rates be raised, but they should be raised by 50 basis points all at once. The CPI data indeed came out at 0.3%, which, although lower than the previous value, was higher than expected. The probability of a rate hike in December, according to CME, is already close to 100%.
Following the CPI data, Logan, also a 2026 voting member, spoke up. Like Waller, he not only supports the December rate hike but also believes that the Federal Reserve should at least raise rates by 50 basis points. The only difference is that Logan thinks it would be better to raise it in two steps of 50 basis points. The market sentiment is not very good right now. Although the CPI result was expected, Nvidia's steep decline has negatively impacted the entire AI and semiconductor sectors.
Currently, the only thing that could boost market sentiment in the short term is the end of the war between the U.S. and Iran. In fact, the rise in CPI or the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is mainly due to inflation issues, with the biggest driver of inflation being oil. If oil prices can return to around 60 dollars, then everything will be fine. Every time I think about this, I have to curse Trump, who, after being well-fed, insisted on attacking Iran, resulting in the current situation.
Now, Bitcoin still closely follows tech stocks. As long as the war ends, oil prices will fall, and the inflation issue can be resolved easily. It is even possible that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise rates in December. It now seems stuck in the U.S., where although Trump's tone has softened recently, his actual actions continue to pursue an attack on Iran.
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