At five o'clock in the morning, a needle directly pierced through the critical support of 74,000, with the latest data coming down to 73,333, which aligns with expectations. Recently, there has been hot news, and one piece of information is very important: Nasdaq has launched 23/5 trading, which means trading five days a week, twenty-three hours a day, with only one hour reserved for maintenance. It reminds everyone that the official implementation time starts on December 6th, which is not closely related to blockchain technology and continues the traditional technology. Why does Lao Cui think this news is very important? It's very much like a trial run for tokenization. Although there are currently no signs of it in the short term within the crypto circle, the inspiration for the 23-hour trading definitely comes from earlier tokenization companies. Everyone can see the earnings: the total market capitalization of real-world assets (RWA) in the Solana ecosystem has reached 4.8 billion dollars. Among them, the scale of tokenized funds is 3.7 billion dollars, the scale of tokenized stocks is 1.1 billion dollars, and the scale of tokenized commodities is 31.9 million dollars. This is also yesterday's data.

The release of this news will play a supporting role during the bear market cycle for the crypto circle. In this regard, Lao Cui finds it very difficult to see Bitcoin's price particularly low. Even though this bear market cycle has already begun, and the pressure from news is so severe, as of now, Lao Cui does not dare to predict it will go below new lows. Everyone can look back at history; Bitcoin's darkest moments also began with domestic regulatory exits. At that time, Bitcoin was in an era controlled by Grayscale, with little major capital involved. A manipulation at around one billion dollars could lead to a disastrous crash in the crypto circle. And now? BlackRock, MicroStrategy, Musk, even Vanguard, Goldman Sachs, VISA, Standard Chartered, Citigroup, these top-ranking banks and investment institutions are almost all involved. This level of market control can only be seen through the strategies taken by Americans for impactful change. Now, with Nasdaq adopting a 23-hour trading system, it is laying the groundwork for the subsequent RWA; once successful, it means betting on all dollar assets for America.

Explaining this perspective to everyone is also due to the variety of voices flooding the market; Lao Cui is also very aware that when the price rises, there will be noise about a bull market, and when it falls, there will be followers of a bear market. Many predict Bitcoin will halve from its current price, and some even forecast the crypto circle will drop below 20,000. Lao Cui has also carefully reviewed everyone’s views; when it comes to actual evidence, almost no one can provide it, and they all rely on cyclical theories for judgments. In other words, they do not look at what structure the existing capital in the market is; they naturally ignore inflow data, such as Strive increasing its Bitcoin holdings to 3 billion dollars, that Hong Kong will submit a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency bill by the end of the year, and Mr. 1,000 increasing his holdings by 5,000 BTC over two days, reaching a total of 6,000 coins, while the spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have surpassed 2.06 million coins, accounting for 10.24% of the supply. With such positive news, they turn a blind eye.

Lao Cui's approach is usually very conservative; whether it’s a medium-term or spot estimate, he will assess the actual progress of the news: can it be achieved? Including the effects after achieving it, all these require data support; without data, it’s all just empty talk. The first profit target of 74,000 has also been achieved, congratulations to everyone for successfully gaining profits. Today's trend will show a recovery effect, after which it will continue to decline. From the perspective of the current breakdown of support, the subsequent bearish trend will not be interrupted; for predictions for next year, it needs to be assessed in conjunction with December’s market trend. If December falls to the 6-6.5 range, next year's trend will be very dangerous. Especially before May, it is very likely to reach a new low effect, meaning the entry timing for spot users will also fall within the range of 5-6 months, and the specific approach still needs to be in conjunction with next year’s interest rate hikes and the progress of the bills.

For this year's trend, a crucial variable is the Democratic Party's assessment of power—will they investigate Trump and crypto assets? This point is very important. Once the RWA process starts, it will definitely be delayed, and simultaneously the progression of the bills will also be postponed. These are two concepts; the RWA involvement will only be promoted after the bills are passed. If both can be pushed along normal trajectories, a bull market might still appear in 27 years, all the positive news could be disrupted, the bear market's continuation will go on, leading to new lows appearing simultaneously. For short-term users, the support at 78,000 has already become history, today’s observation point is to see the recovery situation at 75,000; if it stabilizes this week, there will still be bullish forces for a counterattack. In terms of medium-term levels, bulls have already abandoned the key support at 74,000. This month will break the 70,000 support and fall into the 65,000-70,000 range. The only uncertainty for us is just a short-term situation; medium-term shorts are still not a big issue.

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