Today during the day I was still comparing the headache of oil prices. Although I can feel that in the long run an agreement between Iran and the United States will certainly be reached, I am very worried that Iran will take a hard line before Trump's latest iron door plan. I was thinking about whether to clear out my current short position when I saw information that the Republican leadership in the House may impeach the Secretary of Defense. The key point is that the Republicans are preparing to impeach, which indicates that the internal situation of the Republicans has had enough of the US-Iran war.

After this news was confirmed, I decided not to maintain the short anymore, because this clearly sends a friendly signal to Iran. Furthermore, just now Trump publicly stated in an interview how the US and Iran can continue to make progress in negotiations. This means that the probability of the US attacking Iran is very low, which also indirectly acknowledges the low quality of internal party support for intensifying the war. Trump once again TACO, and every time TACO happens, the situation improves a bit.

Initially, I thought it might be difficult at the end of 2026 with Trump continuing to be tough, but if Trump can be restricted and negotiations with Iran can begin, then at least the probability of maintaining peace is quite high. Maintaining peace means that oil prices will slowly decline, which will greatly help ease the Federal Reserve's high-pressure policies.

Tomorrow the high sell of Bitcoin will be over; the probability of reaching it is almost nonexistent. However, I feel that $80,000 does not pose any pressure on the current bitcoin:native. As long as a positive announcement regarding the formal start of negotiations between the US and Iran is made, breaking through $80,000 is not a problem. I still have this confidence.

A @Gate, trading more markets

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