On the daily level, the moving average system is perfectly aligned for a bear market: the price is below EMA15 at 2295, EMA30 at 2354, EMA60 at 2382, and EMA120 at 2324. The MACD double line shows a deep negative value, and a bottom divergence golden cross pattern is forming. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the middle band at 2317 acting as dynamic resistance, and the lower band at 2166 as key support. The TD count is at 4, not yet completing a reversal. This is approximately a 20.3% retracement from the high of 2806.76.

On the four-hour level, EMA15 reports 2248 as immediate resistance, with EMA30/60/90/120 arranged in a bear fan pattern. The MACD shows a weak golden cross momentum below the zero line. A rebound to 2410 encountered a pullback after resonance at EMA90-120. The daily support at 2166 coincides with the four-hour Bollinger Band lower band at 2168 across periods.

Long strategy: Backtest 2172—2168 shows a bullish engulfing, entry at 2170—2175, stop loss at 2155, target 2248-2295-2317, risk-reward ratio 1:2.5.

Short strategy: Rebound from 2295—2317 shows a shooting star, entry at 2300—2310, stop loss at 2330, target 2248-2172, risk-reward ratio 1:3.5, single trade risk less than 2% of net value.

Technical analysis is probability management, not prediction. The above is only personal review notes and does not constitute investment advice. Follow along with discipline.

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