Bitcoin pulled back from the 75,000 range to 81,000, and the group became lively all of a sudden. I broke down the market situation on November 4 and found that the two segments of the rise were driven by two groups of people. The first half was leveraged bulls buying in at low levels, while the second half resembled shorts buying back to close positions. As for the US spot market and the large on-chain addresses I have been tracking, the buying hasn't given the same strong signal. So I think the bull has only returned halfway.
When I put the open interest volume of Binance and Bybit on one chart, the difference immediately became apparent. From 11 AM to 4 PM, the price rebounded by about 2,800 dollars, and the combined open interest of the two platforms increased by about 716 BTC. By 10 PM to midnight, the price rose by another 2,150 dollars, but the total open interest decreased by about 4,600 BTC. The K-line is moving upward; in the first part, someone was increasing their positions, while in the later part, someone was withdrawing.
Switching to a five-minute view. At 10:55, the price dipped to 75,690 dollars, and the open interest followed downwards. From 11:05 to 11:30, Binance's open interest quickly increased by about 700 BTC. During the rebound, the proportion of retail bullish accounts on Binance rose from 70% to 72%, while the proportion of large bullish positions increased from 64% to 66%. Expanding the time frame from 11 AM to 4 PM, Bybit's open interest increased by about 1,551 BTC, while Binance's overall slightly retreated. The pace of both exchanges is not entirely the same; looking at them separately is necessary to understand who is buying in at low levels.
In the evening, the script changed. The price rose from about 78,338 dollars to 80,494 dollars, with Bybit's and Binance's open interest decreasing by about 2,937 BTC and 1,670 BTC respectively. Around 10:40 PM, a five-minute K-line surged by about 856 dollars. The price shot up quickly, and the open interest dropped quickly, consistent with the characteristics of concentrated short buybacks. The 4,600 BTC is the decrease in total open interest; based solely on this line, it's hard to distinguish how much was voluntary closing and how much was forced closing.
I also looked at about 250 high-profit addresses on Hyperliquid. When the price bottomed out, this batch of addresses did not all go long at the same time; some were even selling during the rise. A short-term address bought at low levels, sold at high levels, then flipped and opened a short position, later closing part of it in the early morning. Two large short positions are still worth continuing to track. At the end of the live stream, I looked at several addresses that have been holding long positions for a long time; they had built their positions well before this round of rebound, and their actions were minimal. When looking at addresses, one must consider the time of building positions; otherwise, old positions can easily be mistaken for newly entered buying pressure.
After the rise, the proportion of retail bullish accounts fell from 72% to 58%, while the proportion of large bullish positions remained around 66%. Large holders tend to hold on, but these are contract positions; market reversals can also amplify fluctuations. Looking again at Coinbase's spot premium relative to Binance, it remained in negative territory most of the time. I use it to observe the strength of US spot buying, and whether ETFs have continued net inflows still requires observing capital flow data separately. What is clear now is the two changes in the contract market; the signal for off-exchange spots continuously taking over has not yet caught up.
Another metric is the cost of short-term holders. According to the data at the time, for holders who bought in the last 155 days, the estimated average cost is about 75,892 dollars. On November 4, it hit 75,690 dollars, dipping below and then recovering about an hour later. This indicator updates with a lag; I consider the area around 75,900 dollars as an observation zone. During intraday dips, closing below this line is a different matter than closing on the daily line.
Next, I will focus on whether the daily line can hold around 75,900 dollars, whether the two large short positions are for adding or covering, and whether Coinbase's premium can turn positive. After the drop in retail, will large holders still hold on? Whether there will be new contract positions coming in during the rebound can also be cross-referenced with long-short ratios, open interest, and funding rates. In AiCoin, I can also mark on-chain holding addresses on the K-line to set alerts for address movements. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands on the daily line had previously repeatedly suppressed rebounds, so whether it can stabilize is also worth watching. A V-shape indicates someone bought at the low, but whether there are others willing to take over with spot purchases is what I most want to know.
Currently, there is a live stream every day, and I welcome everyone to continue following AiCoin! Reserve in advance👇
https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/live/list?tab=upcoming
Join our community to discuss together and become stronger!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoin_support
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
Hype rebate: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
Binance rebate: https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=3 invitation code: aicoin668
Coinbase rebate: https://jump.do/xlink?checkProxy=true&proxyId=25 invitation code: Y8L23JL
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
