Space Time: November 5, 2026, 20:00
This episode's guests: Grace (@0xXiaoXiong), Dongye (@ldld888888), Brother Toad (@leonZR1394), Richard (@Richardxx0)
The rebound above $80,000 has not become the starting point for a new round of BTC increase. At the beginning of November, after a brief return above this threshold, BTC weakened again, and as of November 6, the price had fallen back to around $76,000. The previous optimistic expectations of $100,000 have not yet materialized, and the market has shifted back to adjustment, prompting a reevaluation of the conditions supporting BTC's continued rise.
While the price is under pressure, the factors influencing the market are also changing. The demand for spot trading in the US is relatively weak, and participation of global capital is showing differentiation; the policy direction following the midterm elections remains to be observed, while traditional financial institutions are accelerating the advancement of tokenized deposits and on-chain settlements. On one side, there is pressure from short-term funding, while on the other side, there is the evolution of long-term financial infrastructure. The crypto market is undergoing not just a price adjustment but a reconfiguration of market forces and growth logic.
BTC's correction does not alter long-term expectations; $100,000 still requires funding support
BTC's continuous decline from above $80,000 has dampened the previously heightened expectations for a breakthrough. In light of this change, Grace believes that a short-term price adjustment does not mean that BTC's long-term development logic has changed. The fact that it previously surpassed $80,000 indicates that the market still has expectations for higher prices, and short-term fluctuations are an inevitable part of market operations.
Regarding the future market trends, she is more focused on whether BTC can regain a foothold in the key price range, and whether trading volume and spot funds can improve in tandem. In her view, a mere price increase is insufficient to confirm a trend; if the price breaks through a critical level while market participation also increases, then the upward trend will have a more promising foundation.
$100,000 remains an important target of market attention, but achieving it will require coordination of the macro environment and funding conditions. For traders, facing the current uncertainty, reasonably managing positions and maintaining their trading rhythm is more important than merely chasing short-term rebounds.
US buying remains weak, and changes in global funding structure warrant attention
In addition to BTC's price performance, changes in funding in the US market have also become a key topic of discussion this period.
Recently, the US market has frequently shown BTC negative premiums, reflecting a disparity in buying strength between the US market and other regions. Dongye believes this phenomenon offers a new perspective for observing BTC's capital flow, but it should not be simplistically understood as a comprehensive weakening of market demand.
As the investor composition of BTC continues to diversify, market pricing is no longer solely dominated by US institutions, with investors from Asia and other regions also participating. Funding demand and trading behavior from different regions are collectively influencing BTC's market performance.
Thus, assessing the current funding situation cannot solely focus on the US market. Dongye specifically pointed out changes in US ETF funds, global spot trading volume, and price discrepancies between different markets, which can help investors gain a more comprehensive understanding of capital flows. If US buying gradually recovers while demand from other regions continues to grow, the market has the opportunity to achieve a broader capital resonance.
While the performance of the US market is indeed important, BTC has already become a globally participated market, and capital observations need to shift from a single market perspective to a more comprehensive one.
After the midterm elections, can the US stock market bring new opportunities to the crypto market?
Macroeconomic policies and the performance of traditional financial markets are also important factors influencing the crypto market. As the results of the US midterm elections are gradually released, the market is beginning to reassess future policy directions, as well as the potential impacts of economic policies, financial regulation, and the business development environment.
Brother Toad mentioned in the discussion that after the past 11 US midterm elections, the S&P 500 index recorded gains one year later, with an average increase of 13.7%. Although historical performance cannot directly predict the future, the market often gradually returns to a focus on economic and corporate fundamentals after elections.
In his view, if the US stock market can continue to rise, the crypto market also has the opportunity to benefit. The connection between BTC and global liquidity and risk assets is becoming increasingly close; when market risk appetite improves, investors begin to look for new asset allocation opportunities, crypto assets are naturally likely to gain more attention.
However, an increase in the US stock market does not necessarily mean that the crypto market will strengthen simultaneously. The performance of the US stock market, BTC trends, and ETF fund changes remain important indicators for observing the linkage between the two markets. For traders, it is more important to assess whether policy expectations can truly translate into market funding and sustained price performance, rather than rushing to chase short-term sentiment driven by elections.
Traditional banks laying out on-chain finance, Crypto welcomes new growth space
If price, funding, and macro policies mainly affect the short-term performance of the market, then the accelerated layout of on-chain business by traditional financial institutions may bring more long-term changes to Crypto.
In this discussion, Richard expressed a positive outlook on this trend. He believes that whereas blockchain technology was previously more focused on crypto trading and native ecosystems, traditional banks are now beginning to explore tokenized deposits and real-time settlements, indicating that blockchain technology is entering a wider range of financial business scenarios.
Taking Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong as an example, tokenized deposits and 24/7 settlement establish a closer connection between traditional financial services and crypto infrastructure. In the future, whether for cross-border payments, corporate settlements, or RWA asset circulation, there are opportunities for development using these infrastructures.
Richard also sees great potential for Hong Kong in this field. Its mature financial system and international market provide a solid foundation for Hong Kong to connect traditional finance with the crypto ecosystem. If traditional financial institutions, regulatory bodies, and crypto companies can form effective cooperation, Hong Kong has the chance to attract more institutions and funds to participate in the construction of on-chain finance.
It is also noteworthy that traditional finance entering Crypto brings not just capital influx but also new user groups, more types of assets, and real financial application demands. As these resources gradually enter the on-chain ecosystem, the development of Crypto can be expected to extend from native trading scenarios to a broader financial field.
The next round of market growth requires more forces to jointly promote
Reflecting on this discussion, from the BTC price correction and $100,000 expectations to changes in US market buying and macro environment and traditional finance's on-chain layout, several topics seem to have different emphases but fundamentally point to the same question: What kind of funding and fundamental support will the next round of increases in the crypto market require?
In the short term, whether BTC can reopen upward space still requires clearer signals from trading volume, spot funding, and price trends; in the medium to long term, changes in the global funding structure, an improvement in macro risk appetite, and traditional financial institutions' ongoing push for on-chain business may all become important forces affecting industry development.
The market will not necessarily start a new round of increases due to a single favorable news item; price breakthroughs also require more factors to align. Rather than hastily searching for the next upward catalyst, continuously observing capital flows, the macro environment, and the actual progress of industry applications may be more helpful in understanding the changes currently occurring in the market.
When BTC's next breakthrough will arrive still needs market validation. However, it can be seen that the growth logic of Crypto is continuously expanding, and in the future, what deserves attention is no longer just the price itself.
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