Just read an article that, according to the traditional Kondratiev wave cycle, we should currently be at the critical point transitioning from "autumn" to "winter," about to face a total liquidation of excessive debt and financialization.

The next five years can be divided into four stages—

1. False dawn and bubble burst (second half of 2026)

The debt wall effect manifests, and corporate default rates rise. At the same time, the return on AI capital expenditures disappoints the market.

2. Geopolitical shocks and soaring inflation (throughout 2027)

There may be maritime blockades or extremely tense military standoffs, disrupting the global semiconductor supply chain. Inflation panic peaks, and silver may begin to outperform gold.

3. Long stagflation winter (2028 - 2029)

The economy enters a painful bottoming phase. Growth stagnates, prices remain high, and social unrest intensifies. Bitcoin may decouple from tech stocks during this phase, establishing itself as the safe-haven digital gold.

4. Budding spring (2030)

After four years of debt clearance and inflation dilution, balance sheets gradually recover, and a new international monetary order begins to take shape.

The world starts to position for the next dominant industry in the long cycle, which may be biotechnology, nuclear fusion, or advanced robotics.

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