Original author: Zhao Ying

Original source: Wall Street Insights

AI star company Anthropic is facing a significant test of its IPO plans. In the tech stock crash two days after the midterm elections, the Nasdaq Composite Index lost $2.5 trillion in market value in a single day, and the IPO of Anthropic, once considered a "must-buy," is now under pressure on both valuation and timing, two core issues.

On Thursday, reports from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters indicated that three major investors planned to participate in the IPO, explicitly stated that the target valuation of $1.5 trillion might be difficult to achieve, with one of them believing that the actual valuation might be closer to $1 trillion. At the same time, some investors directly questioned whether the roadshow could start on schedule in the week of November 9, and market confidence that Anthropic could complete the IPO within the year is rapidly fading.

This situation has far-reaching implications for the entire market. Anthropic has deep business ties with tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Nvidia, and its IPO was originally expected to break the historical record set by SpaceX in June of this year, becoming the largest public offering in history. If the listing plan falters or is forced to discount significantly, it could further drag down the already fragile sentiment in the AI sector and put pressure on the overall market heavily invested in tech stocks.

Market "bloodbath," AI confidence faces the most severe test

The trigger for this round of tech stock sell-off was the results of this week’s midterm elections. The elections brought a cohort of AI policy skeptics into power, with several states passing moratoriums that could delay the construction of data centers in the U.S., directly hitting the core logic of AI infrastructure investment.

In the next two trading days, AI-related assets experienced a collective sell-off. More than 50 tech stocks in the Nasdaq within the S&P 1500 fell over 10% in one day. Data center and computing power concept stocks such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN led the decline, each losing half their market value in the past month. The credit default swap spreads covering CoreWeave and SpaceX reached historic highs, with market-implied expectations of defaults significantly rising over the next few years.

Keith Lerner, Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services, stated that the tech sector has fallen by 10.7% relative to the S&P 500 over the past month, marking the most extreme monthly underperformance since May 2002. He described the current sell-off as "unpleasant but not abnormal" and warned that "the rubber band is being stretched tighter and tighter." Vanda Research data shows that retail selling pressure has been the strongest since the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the same period, Microsoft tightened regulations on certain data center projects of emerging cloud service providers like Nebius, IREN, and Nscale, further exacerbating market concerns about a slowdown in AI infrastructure investment.

Valuation discrepancies surface, investors seek larger discounts

Anthropic originally planned to complete its listing in the week before Thanksgiving, with a fundraising scale of up to $100 billion, corresponding to a valuation of about $1.5 trillion. Earlier this year, the market once expected its valuation to reach as high as $2 trillion.

Now, according to Reuters citing four insiders, some investors have viewed $1.5 trillion as a valuation ceiling rather than a reasonable benchmark and are demanding larger pricing discounts before being willing to commit to subscriptions. Investor concerns arise not only from market volatility but also from scrutiny of Anthropic’s fundamentals — the company has continued to record quarterly losses and has made substantial capital commitments to AI infrastructure construction partners.

Investors are also waiting for the October revenue data left blank in Anthropic's latest S-1 amendment to assess whether the company has regained momentum after its growth rate slowed in recent months. The absence of this critical data makes it harder for institutional investors to make large betting decisions in the current market environment.

According to the Wall Street Journal, another major investor bluntly stated that even if the market rebounds, convincing institutional investors who have just suffered losses in this sell-off to reallocate heavily to the AI sector remains a huge challenge. This investor does not rule out the possibility of Anthropic delaying its IPO.

To list or to wait? Anthropic faces a dilemma

Anthropic executives and their advisors are expected to hold meetings in the coming days to discuss the follow-up arrangements for the IPO. According to insiders, the company has deliberately avoided making a public commitment to a specific timeline throughout the preparation process to retain flexibility for adjustments. As of September 30, the company had cash on hand of $146.6 billion.

Under external pressure, Anthropic faces multiple path choices: proceed with the IPO at a lower valuation, reduce the fundraising scale, or simply postpone until market conditions improve.

However, postponing the IPO does not come without cost. Delaying the decision may further amplify external concerns about the health of the AI ecosystem, especially against the backdrop of clear political signals restricting data center construction. Meanwhile, as one of the highest-valued AI companies, if Anthropic is viewed as unable to complete financing, it could negatively impact the overall market valuation of large tech companies.

In contrast, the experience of AI competitor OpenAI similarly reflects the cooling of the current financing environment. According to the Wall Street Journal, OpenAI's latest funding round has only raised about $11 billion so far, less than half of the initial target of $30 billion, and the actual transaction valuation is also lower than previously expected, settling at $1.25 trillion.

Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, holds a cautiously optimistic view of the market's long-term prospects: "These companies will ultimately be part of the future, they will eventually go public, and investor interest remains. Private market valuations have risen over the long term, and it is normal to see some correction now." However, under the current market conditions, whether this optimism can support Anthropic in completing its IPO at the intended price remains to be seen.

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