Today at the #Binance Campus event, I attended a macro lecture by @BinanceResearch, packed with valuable insights! 🧐
A good memory is not as good as a lousy pencil, while the memory is still fresh, I quickly jot down some notes to share with everyone!
This lecture pinpointed the two core themes for next year: the valuation trap of AI computing power in the US stock market, and the ambush opportunity for BTC before the liquidity inflection point!
1️⃣ Tightening Boundaries: Central banks have already "slowed down" their rate hikes, #BTC is just waiting for the floodgates to reopen
As shown in the figure below 👇, the macro data is very straightforward: among the 38 major central banks worldwide, the number that raised interest rates has increased from 12 to 19, which is also the main reason for the halved peak of BTC at $126,000 in this round of the big cycle, but the inflection point is already approaching!
Looking back at the past few macro cycles, the logic is extremely pure: when the number of central banks raising interest rates peaks and falls back, it often signals that the "coldest moment of global liquidity" is about to end!
Looking back at BTC's market situation and chip distribution:
After hitting a peak of $126,000 in October 2025, it plunged down to around $58,000 in June 2026, a complete halving of 54%.
The 54% drop has cleanly exploded the previously overheated derivative leverage, and the chips have fully rotated between the high and low positions.
Personal thoughts: Previously, BTC's deep decline was essentially enduring the destructive force of drying liquidity. But market prices always run ahead of central bank policy announcements. As the rate hike camp approaches its peak, it is highly probable that it will decline, and the marginal damage from tightening to the market has already decreased.
Once liquidity shifts from "dried up" to "replenished" at the beginning of next year, BTC, as the most sensitive and elastic asset to liquidity, will have an astonishing rebound after accumulating strength. Returning to its roots, buying on dips remains a good opportunity, and this time #BTC's pullback to around EMA200 at $76,000 is an excellent position!
2️⃣ The Hidden Risks of AI: "CAPEX Downgrade" Under High Base, Hardware Frenzy Hard to Sustain
In the past two years, AI has almost been the only growth booster for US stocks and even the global market. As shown below 👇, in Q1 2026, AI-related investment accounted for 35% of the GDP increment of US stocks. However, several charts presented on-site revealed the biggest grey rhino risk for next year:
Capital Expenditure Emergency Brake: The five major cloud providers' CAPEX growth rate surged to a feverish peak of 94% in 2026, totaling nearly $800 billion. However, by 2027, constrained by a huge base, growth rate will drop directly to 37%, at $1.099 trillion, and even slow to 19% by 2028.
Relief of Computing Power Bottlenecks: The vacancy rate of North American data centers and server rooms has risen from 1.4% to 4.2%, signaling the end of the most extreme shortage of computing power phase.
Personal thoughts: The marginal effect of cloud giants' excessive hardware expansion is sharply declining, and excessively high capital expenditures severely consume free cash flow. The capital market cannot indefinitely subsidize purely "spending money to buy chips." The growth rate of AI capital expenditure is expected to drop from 94% to 37% next year, which will likely trigger a valuation correction in US tech stocks. The AI industry hasn't died, but the valuation deflation process caused by high expectations combined with reduced capital expenditures will be very intense.
3️⃣ Trading Main Line: Shift from "Betting on AI Overvaluation" to "Positioning for Liquidity Reversal"
Combining the on-site discussions about inflation, central bank policies, BTC chips, and the AI computing power cycle, the main storyline for asset allocation next year is very clear:
1. Macroeconomic Scenario: High oil prices push inflation for one last peak ➔ Early next year PCE peaks ➔ Global central bank interest rate hike cycle completely ends ➔ Signals release the liquidity inflection point. As shown below 👇
2. Asset Differentiation Path:
US AI Tech Stocks: firmly refuse to chase leverage at high positions. Guard against the valuation downside pressure brought by "high base + capital expenditure slowdown."
BTC: After a deep washout of 54%, the chips are astonishingly clean. As global central banks halt interest rate hikes and slightly open the floodgates, it will be the core carrier for a new round of overflow liquidity.
To sum up, the core practical logic for next year is to abandon the tail gamble on AI overvaluation and fully shift to positioning for liquidity reversal.
Be especially vigilant against the sharp short-term fluctuations in the market caused by the slowdown in tech stock growth; however, from another perspective, every market pullback triggered by tech stock bubble bursts is not a risk, but an excellent buying point for gradually accumulating high-elastic liquidity assets like BTC. While others are cutting losses in tech stock bubbles, we are loading up on crypto chips on the eve of the liquidity reversal. 🧐
This sharing was great, and I hope it helps everyone! 🙏 Grateful!
@binancezh @moonkimbinance
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