Two key messages in today's morning session, one is Tom Lee's statement that the Democratic Party is pushing for crypto legislation, and the expectation of improved regulatory environment directly boosts market confidence and inflow of funds; the other is more direct, Bitcoin triggered the liquidation of $215 million in short positions within one hour, short squeeze pushed up buying, and the short-term momentum is strong. With both events combined, BTC directly rose to 80,644 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 4.62%. Additionally, the liquidation intensity of short positions above the key level of $82,000 reached 337 million, indicating that once it breaks through, the short squeeze may accelerate. On the other hand, mining companies also are not idle; Hut 8 cashed out $250 million in two phases, and Riot plans to liquidate newly mined Bitcoin, which poses a supply pressure that is a negative factor hanging overhead. With long and short factors intertwined, it is crucial to avoid impulsive decisions and let the data speak.
Current price and time
Current time is November 5, 09:40, BTC price is 80,644 USDT. Fear and Greed Index is 50, neutral; BTC market share is 59.6%, with funds still concentrating on Bitcoin.
Multi-period status overview
Daily level: MA5=78,754.37, MA10=78,896.78, MA30=81,015.63, price is above MA5 and MA10, but still below MA30, daily MACD has just formed a golden cross, DIF=-885.77, DEA=-909.68, histogram value 23.91, RSI=46.98. The daily chart indicates the initial structure of a rebound repair, not yet in a strong trend segment.
4-hour level: MA5=79,983.81, MA10=78,730.94, MA30=77,997.43, moving averages in bullish arrangement, MACD histogram value 448.58, momentum is very strong, but RSI=74.28 has entered the overbought zone. The 4-hour chart is a clear strong bullish trend, but the issue is short-term overheating.
1-hour level: MA5=80,532.05, MA10=80,411.32, MA30=78,790.97, EMA55=78,604.55, price is far above EMA55, MACD histogram value 56.99 is still expanding, but RSI=76.77 is also in the overbought. The 1-hour bullish trend is clear, and momentum has not exhausted, but there is a need to be cautious of high-level fatigue.
15-minute level: MA5=80,575.70, MA10=80,596.63, MA30=80,426.84, MACD histogram value -35.62, DIF=124.14, DEA=159.76, indicating a high-level death cross, RSI=54.00 has dropped back to neutral. The 15-minute chart shows high-level fluctuations digesting, and there is a short-term demand for a pullback.
TPV signal verification
First, let's look at trend positioning. Current price is 80,644 USDT, 1-hour EMA55=78,604.55, price is above EMA55, which is in the bullish trend area, there is no dispute about this.
Verifying long conditions one by one. First, the price needs to stabilize above 1-hour EMA55, requiring two consecutive hourly candlesticks to close above EMA55, the actual data shows that the last 8 hourly candlestick closing prices are all above EMA55, 8/8, the condition is fully satisfied. Second, support stabilizes, the price is 2.59% away from EMA55, which is in a strong distance status, a pullback has not yet occurred; this one is currently replaced by trend strength instead of support confirmation. Third, downward momentum is exhausted, 1-hour MACD histogram value 56.99 is still expanding positively, RSI has risen from a low to 76.77, momentum is upward rather than exhausted. Strictly speaking, among the three conditions for TPV long, the first one is fully satisfied, while the second and third are satisfied for trend continuation rather than pullback, making the signal effective but the entry position relatively high.
In terms of fluctuation filtering, the past 8 hourly candlestick closing prices above EMA55 count is 8/8, crossing count is 0, price distance from EMA55 is 2.59%, far above the 0.3% threshold, clearly does not comply with the definition of fluctuation, classified as a one-sided trend by the system. This is crucial, in a one-sided trend, do not engage in counter-trend shorts, only look for pullback longs.
On-chain/funds
The Fear and Greed Index at 50 is neutral, indicating that market sentiment has not yet reached euphoria, suggesting that there is room for further fermentation in this uptrend. BTC market share is 59.6%, fund concentration is relatively high, altcoins have limited upward strength, the main focus still remains on Bitcoin. A 24-hour increase of 4.62% combined with $215 million in short liquidations shows that this rally is supported by real short covering buying, not purely driven by sentiment. However, the selling pressure from mining companies is a genuine supply burden; Hut 8 has cashed out $250 million, and Riot plans to liquidate newly mined BTC; such news may be overlooked during an uptrend but could serve as an excuse for a crash once the upward momentum stagnates. The SEC's initial recognition of tokens as digital commodities and granting exemptions, as well as Canton Coin's first successful case, signal a warming of regulatory positioning, which adds positive expectations for mid-term compliance.
Key attack and defense points
First upper pressure point is at 81,015 USDT, at the daily MA30 position, also the dividing line for daily level bulls and bears; second pressure point is at 82,000 USDT, where a dense area of short liquidations exists; a breakthrough will trigger a speed-up of 337 million liquidations. The first lower support is at 80,426 USDT, overlapping around 15-minute MA30 and 1-hour MA10; the second support is at 79,983 USDT, positioned at 4-hour MA5; strong support is at 78,604 USDT, which is the 1-hour EMA55, the boundary line of the TPV system for bulls and bears, breaking below will change the qualitative trend.
Trading thoughts
Direction: Bullish, only execute pullback longs, do not chase highs.
Entry conditions: Two options. Option one, price pulls back to 80,400 to 80,500 USDT range, a long lower shadow or bottoming pattern shows on the 15-minute chart, and 15-minute MACD histogram shortens, enter with a light position. Option two, if the price strongly consolidates without breaking 80,400, and the 1-hour candlestick continuously closes above 80,500, wait for the 15-minute RSI to cross back above 60 from around 50. Current price at 80,644, it is not recommended to chase directly; chasing longs with RSI at 76.77 in the overbought state is not favorable.
Stop-loss: Option one stop-loss is placed below 79,900 USDT, below the 4-hour MA5, breaking below indicates short-term structure damage; option two stop-loss is placed below 80,200 USDT, controlling single trade risk within 1.5%.
Target points: First target is 81,015 USDT, at daily MA30; second target is 82,000 USDT, at the dense liquidation area for shorts; if volume breaks out above 82,000, the third target looks at 83,000 to 83,500 USDT range, based on whether the 1-hour MACD shows a top divergence to decide on profit-taking.
Risk reminder
Both daily and 1-hour RSI are overbought, the news of mining company sell-offs could be magnified at any time, strict stop-loss should be observed, do not hold losing positions.
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