Anthropic has not gone public yet; why are there already people starting to short it? How to trade perpetual contracts pre-IPO to reflect expectations before listing?

Abstract: After Anthropic submitted its IPO registration documents on October 26 and updated its financial disclosures on November 2, there were significant fluctuations in the pre-IPO derivatives market: within the relevant statistical period up to November 3, 14:00 (Beijing time), the decline in the Anthropic Pre-IPO contracts across three market samples was approximately 4.20%—4.86%, followed by a partial rebound in some markets. The company has not officially listed yet; why are some people able to go long or short? This article takes BBX DEX's ANTHROPICUSDT as an example to analyze how Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are traded regarding valuation expectations, as well as the resulting price discovery, inter-platform price differences, and funding rate strategies.

Anthropic Races for IPO, Valuation Discrepancies Already Enter Trading Market

For a company that has not yet gone public, investors typically find it hard to express short-term bullish or bearish judgments directly as they would with publicly listed stocks. However, with the development of Pre-IPO perpetual contracts, this situation is changing.

On October 26, 2026, Claude developer Anthropic publicly submitted IPO registration documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), intending to use ANT as its Nasdaq listing code. On November 2, the company submitted a revised registration document (S-1/A). According to the latest disclosure, Anthropic's revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately $16.96 billion, a nearly 47% increase from the previous quarter; at the same time, investments in computing power, rising costs, and future capital expenditure commitments have also become important factors for the market to reassess its valuation. As of the writing of this article, the final issuance price and official listing time have not yet been determined.

The market performance after the financial disclosure illustrates a phenomenon: the same growth data can lead to entirely different judgments. Some people pay more attention to the rapid expansion of AI demand, while others are concerned whether high valuations have already reflected future growth ahead of time and the impact of ongoing investments on profitability.

This discrepancy has already been reflected in the pre-IPO derivatives market. According to periodic statistics from the public market, after Anthropic updated its financial information, as of November 3, 14:00 (Beijing time), the decline in relevant Pre-IPO perpetual contracts across three main trading markets ranged from 4.20% to 4.86%. Subsequently, the market did not continue a one-sided decline. On November 4, during trading, some markets experienced a phase-wide rebound, reflecting that traders were still continuously adjusting their judgments regarding Anthropic's pre-listing valuation.

It should be noted that 4.20%—4.86% is the historical decline of the three sample markets within a specific interval, not the average decline across all platforms, nor does it represent the gains or losses of the BBX contract during the same period. The contract specifications, quotation scales, and liquidity may also differ between different trading venues.

On BBX DEX, traders can go long or short on their valuation expectations through the already launched ANTHROPICUSDT Pre-IPO perpetual contract before Anthropic officially lists. For traders, this does not mean that they have acquired Anthropic stock in advance, but rather that it provides an additional tool to participate early in pre-listing price discovery and attempt to capture valuation expectation changes.

1. What is a Pre-IPO Perpetual Contract? Trading Expectations, Not Stocks

A Pre-IPO (pre-initial public offering) perpetual contract is a derivative that trades around the valuation expectations of unlisted companies. Unlike directly holding stocks, it does not represent ownership of the company's equity and does not grant shareholders voting rights, dividend rights, or future share conversion rights.

Since the target company has not yet been listed on the public stock market, there is a lack of continuously traded right stock prices as a unified reference, causing the prices of related contracts to be more directly influenced by financial disclosures, financing news, IPO progress, investor sentiment, contract liquidity, and other factors.

Its most intuitive value is to allow different directional judgments to participate in the price game:

Optimistic about Anthropic: If a trader believes the company's AI business growth and commercialization potential have not been fully priced in, they can choose to go long; when the contract price rises, longs may profit.
Pessimistic about Anthropic: If a trader believes the valuation is too high, future cost pressures are underestimated, or short-term market expectations may cool down, they can choose to go short; when the contract price falls, shorts may profit.

For example, suppose the nominal value of a position is 1,000 USDT, and the contract price changes favorably by 5%. Ignoring funding rates, fees, slippage, and other contract details, the approximate floating profit and loss would be around 50 USDT; if the price changes by 5% in the opposite direction, corresponding losses would occur. Using leverage does not eliminate risks; instead, it may cause the margin to reach the liquidation line faster.

Thus, the more accurate position of Pre-IPO perpetual contracts is to conduct two-way trading on pre-listing price expectations, rather than “purchasing unlisted stocks in advance.”

2. Where to Trade? Taking BBX DEX as an Example

As the market's interest in AI companies, tech unicorns, and other potential listing targets heats up, Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are gradually becoming a niche category in the derivatives market.

BBX DEX offers multiple perpetual contracts related to unlisted companies, such as Anthropic (ANTHROPICUSDT), Kimi (KIMIUSDT), and Polymarket (POLYMARKETUSDT). The specific trading status can be checked on the platform's page in real-time.

For traders optimistic or pessimistic about Anthropic's pre-listing valuation, BBX DEX provides a direct channel to express two-way price judgments. Traders do not need KYC and can use USDT as margin to participate in pre-listing price battles through the ANTHROPICUSDT perpetual contract.

It is important to distinguish that a lower trading threshold does not equate to lower price risks. Funding rates, liquidation rules, applicable regions, and relevant trading conditions should still be checked on the platform's instructions before opening a position.

3. What Happens to Pre-IPO Contracts After the Company is Officially Listed?

Another key concern regarding Pre-IPO contracts is how they will connect with the public market after the company completes its IPO. Different platforms and contracts may adopt different methods such as continuing trading, adjusting contract classifications, or settling according to rules, and traders cannot simply determine specific arrangements based on the word “perpetual.”

BBX has previously launched contracts for companies like Yushu Technology (UNITREEUSDT) and SHEIN (SHEINUSDT) before their listings. After the relevant companies were listed, the contract classifications were adjusted from Pre-IPO to corresponding stock market classifications. For specific arrangements regarding the Anthropic contracts, please pay attention to relevant announcements and notifications released in advance by the BBX platform.

This connection is essential because the valuation expectations before a company goes public may differ significantly from the public market prices after the listing. Events such as official pricing and trading can lead to substantial price volatility in the related derivatives.

4. Inter-platform Price Differences and Funding Rates: What Other Trading Strategies Besides Directional Judgments?

For the same unlisted company, Pre-IPO contracts in different trading venues may not adopt identical quotation benchmarks, contract specifications, and liquidity structures. Due to the lack of already listed right stock prices as a unified reference, temporary pricing discrepancies may occur between markets.

Independent market data institution Kaiko has previously recorded significant quotation dispersions for the same underlying asset across different trading venues in its research on Pre-IPO derivatives. This indicates that pre-listing price discovery does not always synchronize, but the existence of price differences does not imply risk-free arbitrage; cross-platform trading remains subject to impacts from trading depth, slippage, fees, fund transfer, contract specifications, and price convergence times.

Another direction worth observing is the differences in funding rates. Perpetual contracts typically use a funding rate mechanism for periodic settlement between long and short positions. When the funding rates for the same underlying asset differ among various trading venues, traders might explore opposite direction positions to reduce directional exposure and attempt to obtain gains from funding rate differences.

For example, BBX's funding rate and arbitrage dashboard provides comparisons of funding rates across trading venues and displays some potential hedging combinations. Such strategies require comprehensive checks on funding rate settlement cycles, contract multiples, marking prices, hedging ratios, trading costs, margin usage, and liquidation risks. The annualized rates or price differences on the dashboard are dynamic indicators, not future income promises, and cross-platform hedging positions may not entirely eliminate price risks.

In other words, the application of Pre-IPO contracts is not limited to merely betting on price fluctuations but also includes studying price discovery and funding rate discrepancies; however, regardless of the strategy used, final profits or losses depend on actual transactions and holding conditions.

5. Main Risks of Pre-IPO Perpetual Contracts

Fluctuations in valuation expectations. Unlisted companies' valuations lack stable public stock price anchors, and financial disclosures, financing progress, IPO news, and market sentiment can swiftly change trading prices.

Leverage and liquidation. Leverage can amplify profits, but it also magnifies losses. During sharp price fluctuations or insufficient liquidity, the execution price for stop-loss and liquidation may deviate from expectations.

Funding rates and trading costs. The longer the holding period, the more significant the impacts of funding rates, fees, and slippage may be on final profits and losses; cross-market trading also involves costs on both long and short sides.

Listing connection rules. The treatment of contracts after formal listing, long-term non-listing, or other special events should be governed by the latest trading rules and platform announcements for the corresponding products.

Does not equate to holding equity. Pre-IPO perpetual contracts provide exposure to price risks, not ownership of shares in unlisted companies, and do not confer shareholder rights.

6. Why is Anthropic IPO Worth Attention?

Anthropic's latest disclosures reflect a core contradiction in the AI industry once again: whether rapid growth can support the high valuations given by the market, and what costs must be borne by ongoing expansion. The same financial data may lead some traders to be bullish while prompting others to reassess risks.

In the past, such discrepancies often remained confined to research reports and discussions. Today, Pre-IPO perpetual contracts offer a way to express these judgments before official listings.

For traders interested in Anthropic, the real question to answer is not “Will it be listed?” but: Is the current market pricing of its future value reasonable? How might upcoming news affect expectations? On the BBX ANTHROPICUSDT trading page, users can view related contracts and choose trading directions based on their own judgments while fully assessing volatility and leverage risks.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Anthropic hasn't gone public yet, why can it be shorted?

A: Because the shorting involves perpetual contracts related to its pre-IPO valuation expectations, not borrowing and selling Anthropic stocks. When the contract price falls, shorts may profit, and when the price rises, they may incur losses.

Q: Does trading ANTHROPICUSDT equate to holding Anthropic stock?

A: No. It is a derivative price exposure, not representing equity, dividend rights, or other shareholder rights.

Q: Do BBX DEX Pre-IPO contracts require KYC?

A: According to BBX's current product specifications, DEX contract trading does not require KYC. Specific trading conditions and applicable scopes are governed by the rules published by the platform.

Q: Can Pre-IPO contracts be used for funding rate arbitrage?

A: Yes, differences in funding rates across trading venues and hedging schemes can be researched, but rates may change, and trading also faces risks such as slippage, margin, contract rules, and liquidation, with no guaranteed risk-free profit.

Q: Will BBX contracts automatically convert to stock contracts after Anthropic goes public?

A: You cannot guarantee based solely on other historical cases. The subsequent handling of Anthropic contracts should follow the specific announcements and notifications issued by BBX.

About BBX

BBX is a multi-asset trading platform with stablecoins as a funding entry point. BBX stock account trading involves real US and Hong Kong stocks: U.S. stocks are executed by registered partner brokers with FINRA and cleared by partner clearing institutions; Hong Kong stocks are executed by brokers holding licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. BBX DEX supports 7×24 trading of tokenized stocks and USDT margin multi-asset perpetual contracts and provides automated strategy tools like contract grids.

One Account, Global Markets.

Disclaimer and Risk Warning

This article is based on publicly available information and historical market data at specific points in time, only for industry information exchange, and does not constitute investment advice, yield guarantees, or trading recommendations for any assets. Pre-IPO perpetual contracts are high-risk leveraged derivatives that may incur significant losses, even the total loss of margin. The market statistical ranges discussed do not represent BBX concurrent market situations, and examples do not account for actual fees, funding rates, slippage, or the impact of liquidations. Traders should read applicable contract rules and assess their risk tolerance before trading.

References

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